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Auto1/Carvana: pistons at dawn | Financial Times

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Coronavirus may have halted buyers’ test drives, but not their desire to purchase a new vehicle. Auto1 hopes to raise €1bn of fresh capital in Germany’s first large initial public offering this year. The car dealer wants to sell vehicles directly to consumers, supplementing its wholesale business. On Monday its shares were priced at a range of up to €38 ahead of its listing next week. 

Auto1 follows in the tracks of US online car dealers Carvana and Vroom. Online-only car sales were already attracting buyer interest pre-pandemic. Video technology and the better reliability of modern cars has reduced the need for physical interaction. Lockdowns accelerated that process.

Online car vendors, sales and margins, first 9 months, 2020US online car vendors, share prices (rebased to Vroom IPO)Valuations, enterprise value (€bn), EV as multiple next 12 months sales

Shares in Carvana have trebled since the beginning of last year. Sales of $4bn at the end of 2019 might double to $8bn by the end of this year, on analysts’ estimates. Understandably, Auto1 wants to expand its own online retail operations. These accounted for about a quarter of sales of €2bn in the first nine months of 2020. Total turnover was €2.5bn in the same period of 2019. Wholesale demand sagged, with dealers forced to close showrooms during lockdowns.

Profits have stalled for Auto1 and US counterparts with growth in the driving seat. US investors, preferring speed to comfort, hardly care. Carvana shares trade at almost three times expected sales. Vroom, though now trading below last year’s IPO price, is still worth twice its expected top line.

Similar multiples would value Auto1 at about €6bn. At the top of its published range, the company would be worth €7.2bn. The group is ahead of US rivals when it comes to profitability, thanks to tough cost-cutting last year. Operating losses were just 1 per cent of sales. Carvana’s losses equated to 6 per cent in the first nine months of 2020.

Whether consumers miss the toothy smiles of car dealers is moot. Pandemic restrictions have enabled online sellers to win auto buyers over easily. The risk for Auto1 investors is that these same buyers apply the brakes once that need for distance passes. 

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IPOs / FFOs

Rocket Lab/Spire Global: Spacs, the final frontier

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Life sometimes imitates emojis. Social media stock tipsters are fond of littering posts with rocket symbols. Rocket Lab, which is floating at a $4.1bn enterprise value, makes the real thing. It was one of two space-related businesses to join the market via special purpose acquisition companies (Spac) on Monday, as the surge in these listings continued.

Just two months into the new year and Wall Street has raised a staggering $58bn through 188 blank cheque vehicles, according to Refinitiv. With hot money appearing to outweigh the supply of merger candidates, sponsors are howling to the moon for deals.

Rocket Lab launches smaller satellites into space. Its celestial twin was Spire Global, a satellite data group that is combining with a Spac at a $1.6bn equity valuation.

Like many recent Spac companies, Rocket Lab and Spire are justifying their valuations with lofty sales and earnings growth projections. Rocket Lab, which generated $35m in revenues last year, said it expected to pull in more than $1.1bn in 2026 and become cash flow positive in 2024. Spire, with just $28m in sales in 2020, is forecasting $900m in revenue by 2025 and positive cash flow in three years’ time.

Tesla founder Elon Musk and his SpaceX rocket company have reignited investor interest in US space companies. Annual revenues from space-related business — at present worth $350bn — could almost triple in size by 2040, according to Morgan Stanley.

SpaceX was reportedly valued at $74bn by its latest private funding. Shares in Virgin Galactic, Richard Branson’s space tourism company, have almost doubled since last September to give it a $9bn valuation, even as the group reported a $273m loss in 2020.

Space companies are a moonshot borne aloft by the rocket fuel of cheap money. That momentum trade has more to recommend than some others, such as fledgling electric vehicle companies. Both Rocket Lab and Spire have proven technologies to accomplish highly demanding tasks. This really is rocket science. But like space exploration itself, these investments are only for the brave.

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Coinbase’s offering docs have just dropped [Update]

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Just when you thought you’d seen it all in SEC filings, along comes the Coinbase prospectus. Which is really a direct listing. But who can tell during these days of ICOs and ITOs what a public offering even is.

The cryptocurrency platform which aims to “create an open financial system” is planning to go public via a Direct Listing on the Nasdaq in the near future. The docs dropped an hour ago.

While we dig through the paperwork, we thought we’d just share this gem from the “Definitions” page — the section of an IPO prospectus dedicated to those terms erstwhile investors might not have heard of.

Won’t you look at that:

Hodl: A term used in the crypto community for holding a crypto asset through ups and downs, rather than selling it.

There’s also an excellent use case (with our emphasis):

Borrow & Lend. We allow our U.S. retail users to borrow against and lend their crypto asset portfolios. Our first product is a portfolio-backed loan: a flexible, non-purpose 12-month term loan that allows retail users to borrow U.S. dollars using their crypto assets as collateral. Secured by their investment portfolio, customers can use the line of credit to access U.S. dollars while maintaining a “hodl” investing strategy. Over time, we plan to offer our retail users the ability to opt into lending their crypto assets to earn a passive return on their long term investments.

This is otherwise known in the real financial world as . . . a basis trade.

Meanwhile, Izzy has been pointing out some other curiosities on Twitter:

We’d also add this, which Preston Byrne on Twitter pointed out:

Satoshi as a risk factor, who’d have thought?

More tomorrow, we’ve not even got to the financials yet.





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Coinbase files to become first listed major US cryptocurrency exchange

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Coinbase, the largest US-based cryptocurrency exchange, revealed the scale of its business for the first time in paperwork for a long-awaited public listing that comes during a booming market for bitcoin and other digital coins.

Coinbase generated $1.3bn in revenue last year, up from $534m the year prior, enabling the company to turn a profit of $322m in 2020 after losing $30m in 2019, according to a filing with US securities regulators.

The company’s public debut, the first for a large US cryptocurrency exchange, is likely to rank as one of this year’s largest new tech listings and would mark a milestone for backers of the emerging sector. Coinbase is aiming to list in late March, said one person familiar with the company’s thinking.

Public investors have recently bought up shares in new market entrants such as Airbnb and DoorDash, fuelling a surge in public listings that has drawn comparisons to the 2000 dotcom bubble.

Coinbase filed for a direct listing rather than a traditional initial public offering, meaning it will not raise additional capital when it goes public.

Brian Armstrong, chief executive of Coinbase, warned that prospective investors should expect volatility in the company’s financials.

“We may earn a profit when revenues are high, and we may lose money when revenues are low, but our goal is to roughly operate the company at break even, smoothed out over time, for the time being,” Armstrong wrote in a letter attached to the filing.

Almost all of Coinbase’s revenue came from transaction fees last year, it said in the filing, underlining the company’s dependence on cryptocurrency trading fees.

Shares in the company have recently changed hands in private markets at prices that would give it a roughly $100bn valuation, according to people briefed on the trades, up from $8bn less than three years ago.

Coinbase could use those trades, in addition to input from public investors and its financial advisers, to determine its opening price on public markets.

Coinbase quickly grew into a favoured destination for cryptocurrency traders after it emerged from the Y Combinator start-up programme in 2012. It has recently touted services designed for large institutional investors and a series of acquisitions expanding its reach into software products for cryptocurrency developers.

The company said institutional activity made up almost two-thirds of its total trading volume in the fourth quarter, when transaction revenues jumped more than 70 per cent from the previous quarter to $476m. It said it had 2.8m monthly transacting users in 2020, almost tripling from the year prior.

Coinbase said it oversaw about $90bn in total assets stored on the platform, representing more than 11 per cent of the total market for cryptocurrencies at the end of last year. It has also made venture capital investments in more than 100 companies.

As trading volumes exploded this and last year, the cryptocurrency market has attracted increasing scrutiny from lawmakers and regulators, including over concerns about digital coins being used for money laundering.

In its filing, Coinbase noted the “extensive and highly evolving regulatory landscape” was a risk factor, and that its obligations to comply with various regulations would only increase as the exchange continued to expand internationally.

Among the company’s biggest investors, controlling more than 5 per cent of stock each, are Andreessen Horowitz, Paradigm, Ribbit Capital, Tiger Global Management, and Union Square Ventures.

Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Allen & Co and Citigroup are advising Coinbase on the direct listing.



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