This is the last part of a series exploring Turkey’s geopolitical ambitions. Previous instalments include Erdogan’s great game: Soldiers, spies and Turkey’s quest for power, Erdogan’s great game: The Turkish problem on the EU’s doorstep and Erdogan’s great game: Turkish intrigue in the Balkans.
In a hotel bar in Addis Ababa, an Ethiopian couple wrestle with the remote control, flipping between US election results on CNN, war reports on a local newscast, and a Turkish soap opera, Adi Mutluluk (It’s Called Happiness).
In the end, they choose the Turkish drama, dubbed into Amharic. “The truth is, we both love this show,” the couple echoed.
The success of Turkish television shows in Ethiopia, the powerhouse of the Horn of Africa, is a small but telling sign of Ankara’s growing influence in a region that has become a magnet for foreign capitals. Efforts at soft power, experts say, are aimed at countering the influence of Gulf rivals such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), as well as the US, France, China and Russia.
Turkish content has been a “consistent big hit”, said Elias Schulze, co-founder, alongside three Ethiopians, of Kana Television, a private satellite channel. For Ankara, trade, development aid and even soap operas have been instrumental in cementing Turkish influence on the continent. “Turkey has these soft power advantages that it can exploit,” said Michael Tanchum, an expert on Turkish foreign policy at Spain’s University of Navarra.
Pivot to Africa
In the decades that followed the collapse of the Ottoman Empire, Turkey largely ignored Africa, its rulers choosing instead to focus on Europe. Yet, over the past 15 years, Turkey’s president Recep Tayyip Erdogan has spearheaded a revival of ties with the continent. Since 2009, Turkey has increased the number of embassies in Africa from 12 to 42 and Mr Erdogan has been a frequent visitor, chalking up trips to more than 20 capitals.
Turks and Africans were “destined to be partners”, Mr Erdogan said in October. He has set a goal of doubling Turkey’s trade volume with Africa to $50bn in the coming years, roughly a third of its current trade with the EU.
Ankara’s focus on big state infrastructure deals and contracts across Africa — from an Olympic pool in Senegal to its biggest overseas military facility in Somalia and a large mosque in Djibouti — underlines the economic and geopolitical importance it attaches to the continent.
In north Africa, Turkey has been involved militarily, providing support for the UN-backed administration in Libya. A year ago, Mr Erdogan — named person of the year by an influential Senegalese non-governmental body — visited Senegal, riling France, the former colonial power. “Former French colonial African countries are looking for alternatives to France. They don’t want to trade being a French neo-colony for being a Chinese neo-colony. Turkey provides a third way,” said Mr Tanchum. In the Horn of Africa, Turkey and its ally Qatar have been pitched against the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Egypt in a regional power struggle that centres on trade and influence.
“Erdogan sees it’s about time Turkey projects power beyond its borders — and what better place than the Horn where everyone worth their name is claiming real estate,” said Abdullahi Halakhe, an expert on the Horn of Africa. “And they’re doing much better than the rest in putting their money where their mouth is.”
‘Door to the continent’
Turkey’s Africa policy centres on the idea that the continent “had not been paid enough attention, that there was huge potential here for humanitarian and development efforts, first of all, and then also for economic ties, of course”, said Yaprak Alp, Turkey’s ambassador to Ethiopia.
Ethiopia is Africa’s second-most populous countryand the big prize for powers tussling in the Horn of Africa, a region to which the Ottomans sent regular naval missions in the 16th century. It is the “door to the continent”, said Ms Alp. Over the past two decades, Turkey has been an important partner to Ethiopia, the third-biggest investor of operational capital in the African country after China and Saudi Arabia, according to the Ethiopian Investment Commission.
Turkish investors, escaping economic woes at home, have been lured by Ethiopia’s economic boom, with growth averaging 10 per cent from 2005 until recent economic and political setbacks. Since coming to power in 2018, Abiy Ahmed, prime minister of Ethiopia, has sought to push through liberal economic reforms — including privatisations.
Out of a total of $6bn already invested by Turkish companies in sub-Saharan Africa, $2.5bn has gone to Ethiopia, said Turkish officials. In 2005, there were just three Turkish companies in Ethiopia. Today, there are 200, ranging from wires and textiles to beverages. Even the eruption of the conflict in the region of Tigray has not deterred Turkish investors.
Simge Yuksel Ozyigit, vice-president of a steel cable producer, Demes Cable, that established a new $45m factory near Addis Ababa last year, said that production had been “normal”, unaffected by the fighting. Cuneyt Coke, chair of the Turkey-Ethiopia business council of the Turkish trade group DEIK, said Turkish businesses remained ready to invest in agriculture, health and energy. “Whoever is well prepared will benefit,” he added.
For Ankara, the fact that Addis Ababa is home to the African Union carries weight. “It has symbolic value,” said Mr Halakhe. Moreover, Turkey is unwilling to lose another regional ally after the 2019 ousting of the Sudanese leader Omar al-Bashir, who was close to Ankara.
But Mr Abiy enjoys support from Turkey’s rivals, the UAE and Saudi Arabia, which helped it negotiate peace with Eritrea. And there has been friction between Mr Abiy and Mr Erdogan, both strong-minded leaders with clear visions, according to a former diplomat.
Still, Turkey’s support for Ethiopia in its dispute with Egypt over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam has boosted the friendship between both countries. Last October, Addis Ababa slammed Donald Trump for “incitement of war” between Ethiopia and Egypt, after the US president said Egypt would “blow up” the dam. “We want African solutions for African problems,” said an Ethiopian official, adding that Turkey, unlike other powers, “understands” that.
Turkey also sustains a presence in Somalia, where it has built roads and established a large military training camp. Last year, a Turkish company signed a 14-year contract to revamp and operate a port in Mogadishu. Ankara has been a major source of aid to the country, pouring in more than $1bn since 2011, and, in early November, it paid off $2.4m in debts owed by Somalia to the IMF. It has built hospitals, schools and provided scholarships. Such was the largesse that some parents named their baby boys Erdogan. Abdulkadir Mohamed Nur, Somalia’s justice minister, offered his “heartfelt gratitude” to Mr Erdogan “for his continued support to Somalia”.
“Turkey is clearly a big player in Somalia, but mainly it is a very important commercial player in Ethiopia,” said Rashid Abdi, an independent expert on the Horn of Africa. “Ethiopia is a huge, huge, opportunity for Turkey because it’s a big market, it is a vibrant economy. So, this is the right frontier for Erdogan. It is clearly the target for the Turks to win Ethiopia.”
Beaming out of the television screens, the actors of Adi Mutluluk continue winning Ethiopian hearts at the Addis Ababa lobby bar — with chambermaids now joining in. “They’re addictive. I think we’ve learned how to make them addictive,” said Ms Alp, Turkey’s ambassador to Addis Ababa, referring to Turkish dramas. “This is also the case for Ethiopians who tell me we are so similar that they recognise themselves in them culturally.”
Additional reporting by David Pilling in London
Marine Le Pen falls short in French regional vote
Marine Le Pen’s far-right Rassemblement National party fell short of expectations in the first round of France’s regional elections on Sunday, leaving the Les Républicains party and other centre-right politicians in a strong position for the second and final set of ballots next weekend.
The relatively poor results for the anti-immigration RN — in a record low turnout of about 33 per cent — will also provide some comfort for Emmanuel Macron, who is expected to face Le Pen when he seeks re-election as president next year.
Le Pen described the low turnout as a “civic disaster” that gave a false impression of the political situation. “If you want things to change, you must vote,” she said in a short speech as the results began to emerge.
Xavier Bertrand, the centre-right leader of the Hauts-de-France region in the north, was on course for re-election and received a boost to his own presidential ambitions, with early estimates from BFMTV after polls closed giving him 44 per cent of the vote, against 24.4 per cent for Le Pen’s RN.
Recalling that the RN had been ahead in the region after the first round in 2015, Bertrand boasted in a speech of “breaking the jaws” of his far-right rivals in this year’s electoral battle. Le Pen had campaigned in the north and hoped to flip the region to her party in Sunday’s vote.
Early estimates suggested that Le Pen’s party might be within reach of a first-round lead in Provence-Alpes-Côte-d’Azur in the south. But even there the performance was less impressive than predicted by opinion polls, which had suggested the RN would take control of the region after the second round in the first such victory in its history.
That now looks less easy to achieve for the RN, since other parties have in the past tended to unite in a so-called “republican front” in second-round votes to keep the extreme right from power.
Nationwide, centre-right lists were forecast to receive about 29 per cent of the votes cast in the first round, against 19 per cent for the RN, 16 per cent for the Socialist party, 13 per cent for the Greens and 11 per cent for Macron’s centrist La République en Marche party.
Incumbent parties performed well, with LR politicians in the lead in the Grand Est region in the east, Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes in the south-east and Ile-de-France around Paris. The Socialists expected to hold Occitanie and Brittany in the west.
Gérald Darmanin, interior minister, said the record low turnout was “particularly worrying”, adding: “Our collective effort must be to mobilise the French for the second round.”
The low turnout did not fulfil the fears of Macron’s ally François Bayrou by benefiting the extreme right or the extreme left, and may have been the result of voter weariness with politics and a desire to enjoy themselves after more than a year of the Covid-19 pandemic.
“The French have their minds on other things completely,” Brice Teinturier of polling group Ipsos told a webinar last week. “We are coming out of the pandemic . . . and the outlook for the economy is getting much better.”
Delta variant begins to spread, threatening EU’s Covid progress
The Delta coronavirus variant that swept the UK has become dominant in Portugal and appeared in clusters across Germany, France and Spain, prompting European health officials to warn further action is needed to slow its spread.
While the new strain, which first emerged in India, still only accounts for a fraction of the total coronavirus cases in mainland Europe, it is gaining ground, according to a Financial Times analysis of global genomic data from the virus tracking database Gisaid. It accounts for 96 per cent of sequenced Covid-19 infections in Portugal, more than 20 per cent in Italy and about 16 per cent in Belgium, the FT’s calculations show.
The small but rising number of cases have raised concerns that the Delta variant could halt the progress the EU has made over past the two months in bringing new infections and deaths down to their lowest level since at least the autumn.
“We are in the process of crushing the virus and crushing the pandemic, and we must in no way let the Delta variant get the upper hand,” France’s health minister, Olivier Véran, told reporters at a Paris vaccination centre on Tuesday.
Véran said that 2 per cent to 4 per cent of virus samples being analysed in France were showing as the Delta variant: “You might say this is still low but it is similar to the situation in the UK a few weeks ago.” The FT’s analysis of Gisaid’s data suggests this figure could be higher.
In Portugal, community transmission of the variant has been detected in the greater Lisbon area, where more than 60 per cent of the country’s new coronavirus cases in the past week have been identified. Non-essential travel to and from the city has been banned in an effort to prevent the spike in cases spreading to the rest of the country.
Scientists across the continent are now looking to the UK — where Covid-19 cases have tripled in the past month and the Delta variant accounts for about 98 per cent of all new infections — for clues about what may happen next and which measures may need to be taken.
After official data showed the Delta variant appeared to increase the risk of hospitalisation by 2.2 times compared with the Alpha variant, the UK government this week imposed a one month delay to the removal of its remaining coronavirus restrictions.
“The decisions the UK makes to reopen life and society will serve as a laboratory for us in Europe,” said Bruno Lina, a virologist in Lyon who advises the French government and helps co-ordinate variant sequencing in the country.
Whether the clusters of Delta infections peppering the EU turn into bigger outbreaks will depend in part on how many people have been fully vaccinated, scientists said, as well as people’s behaviour now that many restrictions on life and business are being lifted.
Recent UK government research has highlighted the need to complete vaccination programmes as quickly as possible. According to data gathered by Public Health England, the first dose of a Covid-19 vaccine is generally less effective against the Delta variant than with the previous strains. Two doses increases protection against symptomatic infection with Delta from 33 per cent to 81 per cent.
While in the UK about 46 per cent of the population has been fully immunised, vaccination rates in most countries in mainland Europe are hovering at between 20 per cent and 30 per cent. About 26 per cent of the population in France has been fully vaccinated.
French authorities are currently trying to contain an outbreak in the Landes region, near the Spanish border, where 125 cases of the Delta variant have been confirmed by genetic sequencing and another 130 are suspected, representing about 30 per cent of recent infections in the area. Clusters of the Delta variant have also been identified in recent weeks in the southern suburbs of Paris and an art school in Strasbourg.
In each case health officials have responded with the same formula: increased contact tracing and a renewed push to vaccinate people in the affected areas.
“If we keep vaccination going at a good pace, and some non-pharmaceutical interventions like masks indoors, we can still repress the circulation of the virus this summer,” said Lina, the French virologist. “This variant will displace the other ones — we must keep that in mind — but it doesn’t mean that it will lead to a new epidemic wave.”
Some scientists fear the Delta variant may have already spread further but gone undetected given that less of the genomic sequencing needed to identify variants has been completed in mainland Europe. While the UK has sequenced more than 500,000 Sars-Cov-2 genomes, Germany, France and Spain have sequenced about 130,000, 47,000 and 34,000 respectively.
“It’s costly, it’s time consuming and it was neglected,” said Antoine Flahault, director of the Institute of Global Health at the University of Geneva.
Denmark, however, has sequenced a high proportion of cases and still only identified a small number of Delta infections, even though the variant arrived in the country at approximately the same time as in the UK.
This could be explained partly, experts said, by differences in demographics and movement, including the number of cases imported into the country from regions with a high prevalence, such as India, and the living conditions in the communities into which it is seeded.
The difference in the pace of Delta’s spread across European countries remained “a little bit of a mystery”, said Jeff Barrett, director of the Covid-19 Genomics Initiative at the Wellcome Sanger Institute in Cambridge.
Still, many experts believe that wherever the Delta variant is introduced, it will eventually become dominant. The key, they say, will be to increase the proportion of fully vaccinated people, while slowing transmission of the virus as much as possible.
“We have to keep the messaging very clear,” said Lina in Lyon. “This is not over.”
Additional reporting by Daniel Dombey, Peter Wise, Guy Chazan and Clive Cookson
EU fails in legal bid to speed up AstraZeneca vaccine supply
The EU has lost a legal bid to force AstraZeneca to speed up delivery of Covid-19 vaccines or risk billions of euros in fines, the latest round in a bitter battle between the bloc and the UK-Swedish pharmaceutical company.
In a ruling on Friday, a court in Brussels criticised AstraZeneca for a “serious breach” of its contract with the EU after repeated shortfalls but refused to impose a new schedule demanded by Brussels that would have required the company to deliver 120m doses by the end of June or pay fines of €10 per dose per day.
The dispute between the European Commission and AstraZeneca has severely damaged the company’s standing on the continent and in February spiralled into a diplomatic row when Brussels threatened to exercise an emergency provision of the Brexit deal to stop vaccines entering the UK via Northern Ireland.
The Brussels court ruled that AstraZeneca should provide 80m doses by the end of September. However, in practice this should have no impact on AstraZeneca, which has already delivered 70m doses and plans to provide the remaining 10m before the end of this month.
The commission insisted that the court judgment would nonetheless put pressure on AstraZeneca because it had “laid the tracks for the delivery of future doses on the basis of clear contractual principles”, including supply from British manufacturing sites.
“The company will have to follow these tracks and it can no longer argue that it cannot use the UK plants for the production of vaccines for the European Union,” the commission said.
The ruling found that the pharma company’s failure to send the EU vaccines manufactured in the UK was inconsistent with making the “best reasonable efforts” on supply required by its contract. But it did not order AstraZeneca to use UK production to fulfil the EU order.
A UK plant operated by Oxford BioMedica is nonetheless expected to start manufacturing for the EU, according to a person familiar with the matter.
AstraZeneca was originally expected to supply up to 300m doses to the EU in the first six months of this year but that forecast was cut sharply after production problems.
With the pace of the EU’s vaccine rollout improving, using mainly Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna jabs, and some countries imposing restrictions on the AstraZeneca vaccine after the discovery of rare blood clots, there is less practical need for the doses.
Jeffrey Pott, AstraZeneca’s general counsel, said: “AstraZeneca has fully complied with its agreement with the European Commission and we will continue to focus on the urgent task of supplying an effective vaccine, which we are delivering at no profit to help protect people in Europe and around the world from the deadliest pandemic in a generation.”
Ursula von der Leyen, president of the commission, said: “This decision confirms the position of the commission: AstraZeneca did not live up to the commitments it made in the contract. It is good to see that an independent judge confirms this.”
The court is due to hold hearings in September on a second case brought by the Commission seeking judgment on whether AstraZeneca failed in its duty to deliver on the supply contract.
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