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Analysis

Storming of US Capitol marks an extreme for a norm-busting presidency

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From the unrest of the Depression-era Bonus Army to the upheaval of the Vietnam protests and the exploits of armed extremists — historians struggled to identify any previous event in Washington DC’s past to match the magnitude and severity of the pro-Trump mob that over-ran the US capitol on Wednesday.

“Storming the Capitol on the direction of the president is something we have not seen before. There isn’t a historical precedent,” said Nicole Hemmer, a presidential scholar at Columbia University.

“It’s almost beyond belief,” Joanne Freeman, a Yale historian who has written about political violence in the revolutionary era, told WZON radio. 

Much about the Trump presidency has defied historical precedent, from retaining ownership of a multinational corporation while in the White House to his attempts to politicise the military.

But even by the standards of his norm-busting tenure, Mr Trump’s stoking of an angry protest and the subsequent taking of the Capitol by those same rioters left historians stunned.

Fredrik Logevall, a Harvard professor and expert on the Vietnam-era upheaval, called the scenes “astonishing” and unprecedented in the nation’s capital since the British burnt the White House in 1814. That violence, he noted, was unleashed by a foreign military — not US citizens.

“Nothing during the anti-Vietnam war protests in Washington resembled this. Some of the confrontations over the war got raucous, and there were tense moments and skirmishing,” Prof Logevall wrote in an email. “The scenes we’re seeing today are of a wholly different order.”

Many were emotional as they watched the scenes of mayhem and vandalism in the seat of American democracy unfolding on television and social media. An official at the US Capitol Historical Society sobbed on the telephone. 

“In a just world, President Trump would be removed from office immediately for sedition and rebuked by history for betraying the very constitution he swore to defend,” said Jeffrey Engel, the director of the centre for presidential history at Southern Methodist University. 

Prof Engel added that he had been receiving texts throughout the day from fellow researchers around the world who were as shocked as he was. “Each of them has said in their own way: ‘I can’t believe this is happening in the United States’.”

Washington has always been a locus of protest — and sometimes violence. At times that violence has entered the Capitol itself. 

In 1856, amid the build-up to the Civil War, Senator Charles Sumner, an anti-slavery Republican, was beaten unconscious with a cane by a South Carolina member of the House of Representatives, Preston Brooks. For many, the event presaged the nation’s descent into war.

In 1954, Puerto Rican nationalists smuggled weapons into the House gallery and opened fire while the body was in session. No one was injured.

In 1971, the Weather Underground terror group set off a bomb in a Senate bathroom in the dead of night to protest the US bombing in Laos. Again, no one was injured.

More often, America’s capital has been roiled by mass protests. In 1932, tens of thousands of members of the so-called Bonus Army — veterans of the first world war and their families, who were left destitute by the Depression — encamped in the city. As Prof Engel observed, they were not seeking to overthrow the government or interrupt its functioning but petitioning for early payment of their military wages. General Douglas MacArthur led a military force that drove them from their shelters.

Vietnam-era protests were often large. The Moratorium March in November 1969 drew an estimated 500,000 protesters. Some 40,000 police and soldiers were deployed to protect a nervous city, although the protest ended up being mostly peaceful. In May 1970, the entire DC police force was mobilised and a ring of buses was set up around the White House to prevent protesters coming too close.

Legal scholars said the unprecedented nature of Wednesday’s violence made establishing possible legal ramifications for those culpable of provoking the takeover difficult.

“Inciting riot for the purposes of overthrowing the government is sedition, which is criminal,” said one former prosecutor, who asked not to be named. “The president has walked very close, and potentially stepped over the line in terms of what is proper political discourse and what is criminal.”

In every generation there are members of Congress who say things that are “bat-shit crazy”, Prof Engel observed. “The problem is, they are usually only one or two, and they’re not being rallied by the president.”

They have also, until the recent past, not been inflamed and organised by social media, he added.

Just as they struggled to fit Wednesday’s events into an American historical context, scholars were also at pains to judge what its legacy might be. Still, Prof Hemmer drew one damning conclusion.

“This cannot be categorised as a peaceful transfer of power,” she said.



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Analysis

Third Covid wave pushes Poland’s health system to limits

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After Michal Drozdz, a Warsaw paramedic, pulls up outside a hospital, his ambulance often has to queue for hours before his patients are admitted.

“This has been happening all the time for three weeks. Every shift there’s a real threat you’ll have to spend it waiting in front of a hospital,” he said. “Sometimes it’s two hours, sometimes six . . . During that time you can’t help anyone, which is what this job should be about.”

It is not just Warsaw that is struggling. Across Poland, the health system has been brought close to its limits as the central European nation battles through its most difficult days of the coronavirus pandemic so far.

Infections have surged since early March and on April 1 hit their highest daily level since the pandemic began. In the past fortnight, Poland has recorded 989 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, the third highest figure in the EU. Deaths have surged to record levels and the number of people in hospitals and on ventilators with Covid-19 have also touched all-time highs.

“The scale is incomparable [with the first wave],” said Drozdz. “Back then there were a few confirmed cases per district. Now it’s a few confirmed cases per block of flats.”

As elsewhere in Europe, the surge has been caused by the arrival of the more infectious B.1.1.7 strain of the virus first sequenced in the UK, which in recent weeks has accounted for 90 per cent of new cases in Poland.

A nurse attends to patients at an emergency ward in Bochnia, Poland. The country has the lowest number of practising physicians per capita in the EU © Omar Marques/Getty Images

But critics say the government also made errors that let the strain spread more quickly: first, by not enforcing rigorous enough checks on the thousands of Poles who returned from the UK for Christmas; and second, by loosening restrictions in mid-February once the British variant was already circulating.

The huge inflow of patients has left the health system reeling. Although about a quarter of Covid-19 beds and 20 per cent of ventilators are still free, they are not always in the same place as the people who need them.

Some 150 patients had to be moved from the southern Silesia region to other areas this month after local hospitals were overwhelmed. In the Mazovia region, officials were so worried about oxygen supplies before Easter that doctors were asked to limit the use.

The biggest problem, however, is a lack of staff, the result of years of high emigration and chronic health system underfunding. A Eurostat study in 2018 found that Poland had the lowest number of practising physicians per capita in the EU, with just 238 per 100,000 inhabitants.

“It’s not just Covid that’s the problem. It has just highlighted how insufficient our health system is,” said one young doctor recently sent to work with Covid patients in a Warsaw hospital.

In an effort to regain control of the situation, the government imposed new restrictions in mid-March, which it extended last week to April 18. It has also used powers allowing it to oblige medical professionals to switch from their normal jobs to treating coronavirus patients, and repeatedly expanded the number of Covid beds and ventilators in Poland’s hospitals.

Medical staff at the intensive care unit of Krakow University Hospital. The government has used powers obliging health professionals to switch from their normal jobs to treating coronavirus patients © Omar Marques/Getty Images

Adam Niedzielski, health minister, said on Friday there were signs that the surge in infections was beginning to ebb and that a peak in hospitalisations was imminent. He added that Poland would now also speed up its vaccination drive by broadening the groups of people allowed to give jabs.

“[Accelerating vaccinations] is the only possible answer, given the available resources, to fight the pandemic and get out of the third wave,” he said. “It is a very difficult time and therefore special solutions are needed.”

Yet doctors in hospitals in hard-hit areas are still scrambling to cope, with small teams juggling large numbers of seriously ill patients. The Warsaw doctor said a particular challenge for new staff was helping patients who needed intubation because their oxygen levels were dropping — a procedure normally carried out by specialists.

“You just have to wait for the call from the anaesthetist,” she said. “You don’t get emotional because that’s what we do on a daily basis — but you feel a bit insufficient as a doctor . . . You feel helpless.”

The shortages have left medical staff with huge workloads. “[My colleagues] are exhausted. You don’t have to ask, you can see it when they come off their shifts. I’ve just done my first few shifts and that was the hardest day and a half in my life,” said a second doctor recently deployed to a hospital for Covid patients in Warsaw. “Those who have been working here since February look as if they were seriously ill already.”

To boost their energy, some medics have resorted to giving themselves oxygen and intravenous drips, according to Polish media. Asked about the accounts by Radio RMF24, Niedzielski acknowledged that staff shortages were “noticeable” and described Poland’s medics as “heroes”. “This really is a war and the situation requires non-standard behaviour,” he said.

On top of the exhaustion, medics also have to deal with the psychological pressure that comes with confronting death so frequently. Treating couples where one partner was far sicker than the other, or parents who would not survive, was particularly tough, the second doctor said.

“Sometimes it is easier not . . . to build up links with patients because then when they die I feel like I have lost someone close myself, someone whom I fed and gave stuff to drink, whose hand I held,” she said.

“But on the other hand . . . I cannot imagine cutting off all these emotions completely. You have to find the golden mean. But it’s not easy.”



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Analysis

Iranian TV action thriller delivers warning to Zarif

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It is hardly surprising that Mohammad Javad Zarif, Iran’s foreign minister and nuclear negotiator, is not a fan of Gando, a popular television drama that depicts an incompetent minister who scuppers nuclear talks with world powers by hiring dual nationals who turn out to be spies for MI6.

The series — made by an institute believed to be affiliated to the elite and hardline Revolutionary Guards — “is a lie from the beginning to the end” that “damages foreign policy more than me” by fuelling public mistrust, Zarif said.

By focusing on the nuclear talks, the Guards’ motive goes beyond creating compelling drama, reformist analysts say. Iran is in discussion with western powers about reviving the nuclear deal, a key reformist achievement, and hardliners want to deter the popular foreign minister from declaring his interest in the presidency in what is a crucial election year.

“I’ll be grateful to Gando-makers to let us continue our current job,” Zarif said this month, and commented that he would not run for the presidency.

The possibility of nuclear talks with the US and other powers has complicated an already fraught Iranian political scene ahead of the June election. Many reformists are pinning their hopes on Iran’s top diplomat to reinvigorate the nuclear deal and boost support at the ballot box. Hardliners might prefer to negotiate the deal themselves after the election. The polls are also seen as particularly crucial in case supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, 81, dies during the next president’s term.

Pendar Akbari, left, and Ashkan Delavari, right, in a scene from ‘Gando’
Pendar Akbari, left, and Ashkan Delavari, right, in a scene from an episode of ‘Gando’. The series title refers to an Iranian crocodile able to distinguish its friends from its enemies © Bahar Asgari/Shahid Avini Cultural and Artistic Institute via AP

The purpose of Gando, which refers to an Iranian crocodile able to distinguish its friends from its enemies, “is to tell Zarif that should he dare to announce his candidacy, he will be destroyed immediately,” said one reformist analyst. “When the intelligence service of the Guards truly believes in the Gando plot lines, it means even if Zarif decides to defy such warnings, he will not be allowed to run.”

Centrist president Hassan Rouhani is due to step down this year after two terms and it is not yet clear who the presidential candidates will be. Politicians register as late as May and then have to be vetted by the Guardian Council, the hardline constitutional watchdog, which can disqualify nominees. Potential hardline candidates include Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the parliament speaker and a former guards commander; Ebrahim Raisi, the judiciary chief; and Ali Larijani, a former speaker of parliament. On the reformist side, speculation has centred on Es’haq Jahangiri, first vice-president, Hassan Khomeini, a grandson of the founder of the Islamic republic, and Zarif.

A US-educated career diplomat widely respected in the west for his pragmatism, Zarif was instrumental in the historic deal in 2015, under which Iran curbed its nuclear activity in exchange for the lifting of sanctions. But Donald Trump abandoned the accord in 2018, imposed sanctions, including on Zarif, and said he would pursue a new accord to contain Iran’s regional and military policies. The US move emboldened hardliners, confirming to them the untrustworthiness of the US.

Zarif’s background in the US both as a university student and as Iran’s head of mission at the UN — during which he met US politicians including then senator Joe Biden — has long made him a source of suspicion for hardliners.

This wariness of both Zarif and the west is evident to viewers of Gando, as is the heroism of the Revolutionary Guards. Mohammad, the action hero protagonist, warns that western negotiators may sabotage refineries as part of nuclear talks. Mohammad works out of elaborate facilities akin to those in a James Bond film. The fictional foreign minister is advised by a media adviser, the main culprit, “to enter into direct talks with the US and accept the conditions of the leader of the global village”.

Vahid Rahbani in a scene from an episode of ‘Gando’
Vahid Rahbani in a scene from an episode of ‘Gando’. State TV abruptly stopped broadcasting the series that was less than halfway through its 30-episode run © Hassan Hendi/Shahid Avini Cultural and Artistic Institute via AP

The dramatic scenes reflect, in part, the worldview of some of Zarif’s critics. “Reformists, Mr Zarif and his lobby group in Washington [Iranian dual nationals] should be wiped out from Iran’s politics,” said an aide to a senior hardline politician who is a potential presidential candidate. “We have to get rid of this cancerous tumour once for good.”

Gholamali Jafarzadeh, a former conservative member of parliament, said Zarif “is not a good statesman and should not run for president” while “reformists should know that their choices have no chance to be allowed to run”. 

This month, state TV abruptly stopped broadcasting the series that was less than halfway through its 30-episode run. Local media said broadcasts would resume when the presidential race was over. Iran’s centrist president Hassan Rouhani, whose signature achievement is the nuclear deal — alluded to the show on Wednesday and said “people’s money” should not be spent on “fabrication of the truth” and “distortion of facts”.

After three years of sanctions, many voters are disillusioned by the infighting and the prospect of real change, whatever the outcome of the election. “Whether Zarif or a figure more senior than him runs or not, I’m not going to vote,” said Hamid, a 40-year-old engineer. “Let the Guards win the election as they are the ones who are running the country anyway. Why shall I make a fool of myself?” 



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Analysis

Rising inflation complicates Brazil’s Covid-19 crisis

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After seven months in lockdown, Michele Marques received some unwelcome news when she returned to work: while she was away the prices of almost all the products she uses as a hairdresser had soared.

“A box of gloves rose 200 per cent. Colouring products increased at least 100 per cent,” said the 37-year-old from São Paulo, underlining how costs were rising while her revenue had collapsed. “I had to raise the price of my services, too.”

It is a dynamic that is playing out across Brazil, adding an extra layer of complexity to the country’s coronavirus crisis, which has already claimed the lives of almost 350,000 individuals and pushed hospital services to the brink.

With much of Latin America’s largest economy being shuttered, inflation is surging to its highest level in years, fuelling a silent scourge of hunger among poorer citizens that has run in parallel to the Covid-19 pandemic.

“The high price of staple foods — rice and beans, for example — has led to the disappearance of these items from the table of millions of Brazilians,” said Ana Maria Segall, a researcher at the Brazilian Research Network on Food and Nutritional Sovereignty and Security. In the 12 months to the end of March, the price of rice increased 64 per cent and black beans 51 per cent.

“In Brazil currently food inflation has penalised the very poorest, preventing them from having adequate access to food and in many situations leading to hunger,” she said, adding that rising unemployment and the curtailment of social programmes were also contributing factors.

Volunteers hand out food in São Paulo © Alexandre Schneider/Getty Images

Less than half of Brazil’s population of 212m now has access to adequate food all the time, with 19m people, or 9 per cent of its inhabitants, facing hunger, according to a recent report by Segall’s group.

“I’m doing some odd jobs, but it’s not enough to keep us going,” said Jonathan, a 28-year-old who lost his job in the kitchen of a Chinese restaurant in São Paulo when the pandemic began. He said he now struggles to provide enough food for his three young children and pregnant wife.

On a 12-month basis, inflation in June is expected to surpass 8 per cent, far above earlier estimates. In the 12 months to March, food prices jumped 18.5 per cent, while the price of agricultural commodities in local currency surged 55 per cent and the cost of fuel increased almost 92 per cent.

Line chart of Percentage increase over past 12 months showing The price of rice in Brazil is soaring

The developments pose a fresh challenge to President Jair Bolsonaro, who is already under fire for his handling of the Covid-19 pandemic. Across Brazil’s biggest cities, graffiti has sprung up labelling the populist leader “Bolsocaro” — a portmanteau of his name and the Portuguese word for expensive.

The rising prices are also likely to provide useful ammunition to leftist former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who returned to the political fray last month and may challenge Bolsonaro in elections next year.

“Bolsonaro is to blame for the increase in food prices, he is to blame for everything. They have to remove this guy,” said Maria Izabel de Jesus, a retiree from São Paulo.

Armando Castelar, a researcher at the Brazilian Institute of Economics, said the government had underestimated inflation both in terms of the numbers and also “how much a concern it should be”.

He attributed the rising prices to the devaluation of the Brazilian currency, triggered in part by the stimulus packages passed by the US government — which helped to bolster the dollar and led to higher Treasury yields — and the brighter economic outlook outside Latin America.

“You have a situation where commodity prices are going up because the global economy is going to grow a lot this year. With the growth in the US, interest rates are going up and the dollar is strengthening. This puts a lot of pressure on the exchange rate in Brazil and emerging markets in general,” he said.

As the spectre of inflation loomed last month, the Brazilian central bank raised its key interest rate by 75 basis points, higher than the half-percentage point many economists had expected. A further rate rise is expected next month.

“The central bank acted correctly, but it cannot stop there. It is important not to be too lenient in dealing with this,” said Castelar.

Silvia Matos, a co-ordinator at the Brazilian Economy Institute, also pointed to Brazil’s weakening currency as a contributing factor to inflation. But she said the slide in the real was triggered by investor concerns over Brazil’s deteriorating public finances.

Following the creation of two separate stimulus packages to mitigate the impact of Covid-19, government debt has risen to about 90 per cent of gross domestic product, a high level for an emerging market economy.

The rollout of the second of these packages began this month, with 45m Brazilians set to receive $50 a month for four months.

Critics said, however, these stipends were not nearly enough to keep people both fed and at home in lockdown.

“It is essential that the emergency aid is of a greater value, so that people do not leave the house but no one also stays at home starving,” said Marcelo Freixo, a federal lawmaker with the leftwing PSOL party.

“We need to reduce the circulation of the disease. Brazil is already experiencing 4,000 deaths per day. We will reach 500,000 total deaths by the middle of the year.”

Matos says that inflation had hit poorer citizens much harder than middle-class and rich Brazilians because a larger portion of their income was dedicated to food, the price of which has increased substantially.

“The only thing that could help right now is to get out of this pandemic,” she said.

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