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Chinese stocks close at highest level since 2008

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China’s stock market closed at its highest level since the global financial crisis, capping a world-beating rally fuelled in part by international investors seeking shelter from the coronavirus pandemic.

The CSI 300 index of big Shanghai and Shenzhen-listed stocks closed 1.9 per cent higher on Tuesday at 5,368 points.

The widespread perception among the country’s retail investors that stocks are cheap, together with expectations of support from Beijing, is helping to drive onshore buying, said Ronald Wan, chief executive at Partners Capital.

“People are investing in the stock market because they don’t have another alternative at this point in time and people’s confidence is bouncing back,” Mr Wan said.

Chinese shares have rallied more than 50 per cent from a low point set during a Covid-19-sparked sell-off in March. Lured by the country’s strong economic recovery from the pandemic, global investors ploughed more than Rmb1tn ($150bn) into the country’s onshore stock and bond markets last year.

The latest surge has taken the equity benchmark to its highest closing level since 2008, surpassing a stock market bubble in June 2015 that gave way to a historic 40 per cent decline in the space of months.

However, few expect a similar pullback now. Even after the rebound of 2020, shares in Shanghai and Shenzhen are still not as richly valued as they were during the boom five years ago. The price-to-earnings ratio for the CSI 300, a common measure of valuation, stands at 20.6 compared with a peak of 22.5 in 2015.

Leverage in China’s stock market, which helped drive the previous rally until regulators began clamping down, is also substantially lower than five years ago. Total outstanding margin loans stand at about Rmb1.5tn, compared with more than Rmb2.2tn in June 2015.

But Mr Wan added that while China’s so-called A-share market was likely to continue its rally through the first half of 2021, onshore equities’ draw for both domestic and international investors could fade as vaccines are rolled out in Europe and the US.

“If these vaccines work, other countries’ economies will bounce back and we’ll see some sort of diversification from investors [away from China],” he said. “At that point the A-share market may see an adjustment.”



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Indian foreign minister self-isolates after Covid cases detected in G7 delegation

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India’s foreign minister on Wednesday said that he was self-isolating after two members of the country’s delegation to the G7 meetings in London tested positive for coronavirus.

The face-to-face meetings in the UK capital began on Monday and are scheduled to end on Wednesday. Representatives from G7 countries such as Canada, Germany and France are attending alongside Australia and India as the UK seeks to strengthen its ties within the Indo-Pacific region.

Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, India’s external affairs minister, confirmed on Twitter that he was informed on Tuesday evening that he had been exposed to a possible Covid-19 case.

“As a measure of abundant caution and also out of consideration for others, I decided to conduct my engagements in the virtual mode,” he added. It is understood that the rest of the Indian delegation will self- isolate for the remainder of the G7 meetings.

Jaishankar held a socially distanced meeting with UK home secretary Priti Patel on Tuesday, where two agreed on a “migration and mobility deal” which will provide a “bespoke route” for young professionals from India looking to live and work in the UK. He met Antony Blinken, the US secretary of state, earlier this week.

“We deeply regret that foreign minister Jaishankar will be unable to attend the meeting today in person,” a senior UK diplomat said. “(He) will now attend virtually, but this is exactly why we have put in place strict Covid protocols and daily testing.”



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Blinken rejects claims of ‘cold war’ between US and China

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America’s top diplomat Antony Blinken has rejected claims the US is entering a cold war with China during a visit to London to discuss with G7 counterparts how best to respond to the challenges posed by Beijing.

In an interview with Financial Times editor Roula Khalaf for The Global Boardroom, Blinken said he resisted “putting labels on most relationships including this one, because it’s complex”.

“This is not about initiating a cold war, this is all about doing our part to make sure that democracy is strong, resilient, and meeting the needs of its people,” he said, referring to Washington’s intention to hold a “democracy summit” later in the year.

Joe Biden, US president, has promised to “win” the 21st century in what he has portrayed as a “battle” between democracies and autocracies and has pointed to Chinese activities that the US says are damaging the international order.

Relations between the US and China deteriorated under the Trump administration and the countries remain at loggerheads over security, human rights, intellectual property, and rules governing trade and commerce.

“We’re not asking countries to choose [between the US and China],” Blinken added in remarks at the FT Live event on Tuesday, which were broadcast after G7 countries opened their meeting with a session on China.

Ahead of the event, a US state department official said the G7 session on Tuesday morning was intended to be a forum to discuss how to work closely with allies and partners to address shared challenges from a position of strength.

Antony Blinken, US secretary of state, far right, is meeting with G7 leaders in London to discuss how best to respond to the challenges posed by Beijing © Stefan Rousseau/Pool/Getty

Blinken said the US recognised that countries have complicated relationships, including with China, and that the US did not believe other countries’ economic relationships with Beijing “need to be cut off or ended”. However, he said the US wanted to foster and protect basic rules governing commerce, the environment, intellectual property and technology.

Biden has surprised many foreign policy experts by taking an approach to China that has more in common than not with the harsh stance taken by former president Donald Trump. One big difference has been a significant effort to work with US allies and partners to create more leverage to deal with Beijing.

His approach has been welcomed by allies in Asia, such as Japan and Australia. But there is concern in the EU about the bloc being caught between the US and China, particularly in Germany.

Angela Merkel, German chancellor, has said the EU and the US do not agree on everything and that it was “absolutely clear” that their interests were “not identical” when it came to China.

The G7 comprises the US, Canada, UK, France, Germany, Italy and Japan, and this year the UK has also invited Australia, India, South Korea, Brunei and South Africa to attend as guests.

Biden recently convened the first leader-level meeting of the Quad — a group that includes the US, Japan, India and Australia — as part of this effort to work with allies to counter Beijing.

Evan Medeiros, professor of Asian studies at Georgetown University, said the Biden team’s engagement with the G7 formed part of its effort to assemble coalitions to tackle the China challenge.

He said the administration was pursuing the right strategy by saying the US did not want a cold war and did not want countries to pick sides, but he added: “The reality is everybody is going to have to make choices when it comes to China.”

But Bonnie Glaser, Asia programme director at the German Marshall Fund of the US, highlighted concerns among some that Washington’s stance was “too aggressive and too confrontational”.

“I definitely have the impression that the Germans and some other Europeans are really quite unhappy about the US approach to China,” she said.

In March, the US, EU, UK and Canada co-ordinated the imposition of sanctions on Chinese officials over the country’s treatment of Uyghur Muslims in the western Xinjiang region, triggering retaliatory sanctions from Beijing.

Biden administration officials including Blinken frame the future of the US relationship with China as “competitive, collaborative and adversarial”, depending on the issue in question.

Washington wants to co-operate with Beijing on foreign policy issues including Iran, North Korea and climate change while also defending US interests in the military, technological and economic spheres and pushing back on human rights abuses in Hong Kong and Xinjiang.

Blinken said that “a democratic recession around the world” had occurred over the past 15 years, but admitted the US had its own challenges “visible for the world to see” when it comes to democracy, in a thinly veiled reference to the disputed presidential election and January 6 Capitol attacks.



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A broken state is failing India under Modi too

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The writer, Morgan Stanley Investment Management’s chief global strategist, is author of ‘The Ten Rules of Successful Nations’ 

Over the past month, even as the pandemic raged, nearly 150m Indians voted in five state elections. The ruling Bharatiya Janata party wanted to draw out the voting in multiple phases so that prime minister Narendra Modi could appear as widely as possible. He made more than two dozen personal appearances in the key battleground of West Bengal alone.

Rarely has a party tried harder to take over a single state’s government. The BJP mobilised its vast political machine with a lavishly funded army of cadres. Yet, when the final tally was announced on Sunday, it had failed to dislodge West Bengal’s chief minister Mamata Banerjee. In the later phases of balloting, the BJP lost momentum as the virus spiralled out of control, showing Modi’s government was way behind the curve.

Over the past six weeks, India has suffered one of the biggest surges of Covid-19 any country has seen, with cases rising by around twelvefold, according to official figures. The real numbers are probably many times worse. A crisis of this magnitude would stress even the world’s best healthcare system. In India, it has exposed a pre-existing frailty — a broken state.

A few developed countries, such as France and Italy, also suffered rapid case surges during their later waves of the pandemic. Even so, they managed to lower death rates from the first wave as their health systems had readied for the shock. In India, by contrast, the second wave has brought with it scenes of devastation reminiscent of the dark ages.

When I watch video clips of overwhelmed hospitals blocking their gates and leaving desperate patients to die, I am haunted by thoughts of my grandfather. He died of a heart attack under similar circumstances, turned away from a public hospital where there was no doctor on night duty and an orderly tried but failed to install a pacemaker. But that was in 1993. India’s underlying tragedy is how little progress has been made since.

Among the world’s 25 biggest emerging markets, India ranks last for the number of hospital beds per 1,000 citizens, fifth from last for doctors, and fourth last for nurses and midwives. Even if you drop richer emerging markets and compare India to other large countries with average per capita incomes of between $1,000 and $5,000 — which includes Pakistan and Bangladesh — India still looks mediocre on these basic healthcare measures.

Government spending generally rises as a share of the economy as countries grow richer. Indeed, India spends about as much as a typical nation in its income class, about 30 per cent of gross domestic product. So the problem is not the size of India’s state, but how it spends.

When Modi came to power in 2014, he mocked the welfare populism of his predecessors. Yet within a few years he was vying with them in his promises of generous freebies, from gas to food or houses. Today, welfare spending accounts for 9 per cent of GDP — far higher than the miracle economies India would like to emulate, like South Korea and Taiwan, when they were at similar levels of development.

Modi has, meanwhile, done little to modernise India’s state, which in many ways still operates in ways that hark back to British rule. The model for many state agencies dates to the late 1800s, the healthcare system to the 1940s. In past elections, I’ve travelled thousands of miles on India’s back roads and seen too many understaffed public health clinics — operating rooms without surgeons, X-ray machines without radiologists — to be surprised they have now faltered.

Modi promised “maximum governance.” But rather than reform India’s outdated state, he has centralised power like no other leader in India’s democratic history. He set himself up as the nation’s saviour, who would solve its every problem. But even a Formula 1 driver cannot make much progress in an Ambassador, the old Indian-made jalopy. The reality is that the BJP can no longer claim to offer a superior model of governance. This shortcoming is now starting to show in the polls.

The good news is that private groups, as so often, have rushed in during this pandemic to provide what the government does not. Expats are sending money and medical resources from abroad. Residential associations provide whatever they can to ailing neighbours. So far, the Indian stock market has barely flinched over the rising death toll. This is probably due to a collective intuition that India will survive this crisis too — but that will not be thanks to its leader or the broken state.



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