The operators of the vital Dover-Calais trading route are confident new Brexit bureaucracy from Friday will not bring a repeat of the pre-Christmas chaos of stranded truckers across Kent and parts of France.
A combination of an expected sharp drop in traffic after January 1, the UK temporarily waiving most of its customs checks, and new systems and infrastructure on the French side of the border should keep traffic moving, they predicted this week.
“We are very confident that our bit [of the process] will work,” said John Keefe, director of public affairs at Channel Tunnel operator Getlink.
But much of the success of the new border operations will still depend on traders successfully completing millions of customs declarations, costing businesses an estimated £7bn a year in new red tape, according to HM Revenue & Customs, as Britain leaves the EU single market and customs union.
Ministers are nervous that Brexit will be defined by queues that appear immediately after frictionless trade disappears at 11pm UK time on December 31. Michael Gove, Britain’s Cabinet Office minister, warned this week of “bumpy moments” resulting from “practical and procedural changes” imposed in the new year. The UK government is anxious to avoid more pictures of miles of lorries gridlocked or parked in a disused airfield.
On Monday morning, while all but 15 trucks had been cleared from the M20 motorway, the remnants of France’s pre-Christmas decision to close the border with the UK due to the discovery of the new Covid-19 variant was still visible, with thousands of plastic bags of waste and bottles of urine strewn on the verges and hard shoulder.
But while the UK’s new truck stop and lorry park at Sevington, just
outside Ashford, is still full of mechanical diggers and far from
complete, the post-Brexit border facilities on the other side of the
channel have been finished for many months. The gleaming new customs facilities at both the Channel Tunnel and the Port of Calais stand as testament to the new frictions to trade.
UK prime minister Boris Johnson’s false claim that there will be no non-tariff barriers to trade brings out a grimace from Jean-Marc Puissesseau, president of the port of Boulogne and Calais, who had to spend €13m on new processes for trucks and buildings for checks. Getlink has spent €47m on new infrastructure on its Coquelles site.
Mr Keefe said the all-important part of the process in getting 3,500 trucks a day through the Channel Tunnel was ensuring escape routes for those trucks that do not have a smooth passage so that they do not hold up those behind them.
“Everything we’ve done is to build offline moments to do controls and inspection without disrupting the flow of the traffic,” Mr Keefe said.
For UK exports to the EU this means that so long as their customs paperwork was accepted by both the British and French authorities and the truck was allowed on to the trains, they would round a corner after disembarkation in France, go through a couple of chicanes to slow them down and allow their number plates to be read automatically. Then, without stopping, each lorry would be given a green or an amber sign and told to follow road markings depending on the risk assessment made by French customs authorities.
The green lane goes straight to the motorway as now, while the amber lane is routed to a lorry park on site with nine new inspection bays and even a stable for horses. There, drivers will wait for checks, most likely if importing plant or animal products.
A similar system has been built at the Port of Calais for the larger number of trucks using ferries, but drivers will be given their green or amber verdicts on an app while crossing the channel.
For European exports to the UK, the infrastructure is also in place. Both the Channel Tunnel and the port will operate systems that require only a barcode to show that export declarations have been loaded into the EU systems and the import declarations for the UK, and these will be scanned at the same time as the existing dog checks to look for illegal migrants take place.
At this “pit stop”, the Channel Tunnel and authorities can check 20 trucks every four to five minutes, according to Mr Keefe. Any truck without the required paperwork will be routed out of the flow to a new facility with customs agents and 250 spaces for lorries to park up and fill in the paperwork.
It is the requirement for all trucks to turn up at the coast with all paperwork ready which all sides warn has the potential to cause disruption. “If the majority of hauliers don’t make a declaration, there will be a problem, but I don’t believe it will happen,” Mr Puissesseau said.
On the UK side, there will be minimal initial checks on imports into Britain because the facilities are not yet ready.
John Glen, chief economist at the Chartered Institute of Procurement and Supply, suggested a lack of queues on the M20 would disguise a loss of trade due to insufficient customs agents to process millions of new declarations. “Much of the problem will be hidden,” he said and would build once pre-Christmas stockpiles began to run short in February.
In Calais, the new rules had already brought a post-Christmas lull in traffic ahead of the new rules coming into force. Port operators said they expected a very quiet month ahead.
“We expect January to be calm because lots of people have taken themselves out of the market by stockpiling, but we expect traffic to be going again from the beginning of February,” Mr Keefe said.
But with the anticipation of Brexit alongside coronavirus already reducing the trucks crossing by ferry from 2m a year to 1.7m in 2020, Mr Puissesseau hopes the reality of the new customs checks will not hurt his business further, especially as it prepares to open a huge expansion to the port later in 2021. “I hope it will remain at 1.7m,” he said.
Bullying Russia yearns to be treated as a great power
The writer is the author of ‘Putin’s Russia’ and a member of the Liberal Mission Foundation
At their Conference on the Future of Europe, which opened on May 9, EU leaders invited citizens to “join the debate” on the path ahead. In Washington, President Joe Biden has called for “togetherness” as he announces ambitious plans to transform the US economy and society. For the west, the way to deal with crises is to build images of a better, shared future.
By contrast, Russia is turning to the past in its search for unity. At a Red Square military parade, also held on May 9, President Vladimir Putin asserted that the Soviet people had fought “alone” on their road to victory over fascism in the second world war. In this way, he confirmed that Russia and the west are on opposite trajectories.
Putin’s emphasis on his nation’s past achievements could secure stability in Russia for a while. His rule benefits from the fact that the Kremlin today faces no serious internal or foreign threats. Why, then, is Putin acting like some geopolitical Alfred Hitchcock and creating suspense in international relations, forcing western leaders to play “who blinks first”?
As Russia’s chief decision maker, Putin’s personal moods obviously matter. However, more important is the logic of the Russian system of power, with its demand for recognition on the world stage of the nation’s great power status. According to this logic, Russia cannot be ignored and must be a member of the global concert of powers. It believes macho bullying is the entry ticket to the concert.
Despite the crackdown on domestic dissent and the anti-western rhetoric of state propaganda, the Kremlin’s policies are aimed at preventing Russia from turning into a sealed-off fortress. For in order to be a great power, Russia has to sit at the same table as its peers. To satisfy its global aspirations and conform with the logic of its domestic power arrangements, Russia has to be simultaneously with the west and against it.
In a sense, Putin is getting what he wants. Biden has suggested holding a US-Russian summit, and EU leaders are trying to keep open lines of dialogue with Moscow despite low levels of mutual trust. However, if western governments hope to find a modus vivendi with Russia, they may be disappointed.
For the price that the Kremlin is willing to pay for the risks its policies are incurring is higher than the costs that the west is ready to impose on Russia for causing disruption. In effect, the west is pursuing a dual-track policy towards Russia of containment and co-operation. In recent times, however, this policy has run into the problem that co-operation stalls every time the west feels a need to deter Russia. If they want their approach to work, western countries will have to do a better job of compartmentalising the two tracks.
There are important differences with the cold war era of Soviet-western confrontation. In those decades, the Soviet Union unintentionally consolidated western unity by behaving in ways that strengthened the west’s commitment to principles of liberal democracy and the rule of law. Nowadays, post-Soviet Russia undermines the west by mimicking its liberal principles and getting “inside” western societies through its political and economic elites, business operations and powerful lobbying machines.
Partly for these reasons, the west finds it hard to set clearly defined “price tags” for what it deems unacceptable Russian behaviour. The Kremlin’s recent military build-up on Ukraine’s borders was evidently no red line for the EU. Yet to accommodate Moscow simply encourages its assertiveness.
Nevertheless, a bitter irony may lie in store for Russia. Putin’s international bullying beefs up his image as a strong leader at home. Yet the Kremlin’s continual testing of western patience serves to undermine Russia in more subtle ways.
After the Soviet Union’s collapse, Moscow learnt to use the west as an economic and technological resource. The Russian elite made the west its home. But to preserve the west as a resource, Russia needs the trust of western partners. Instead, the Kremlin’s Hitchcock-style games of suspense provoke western suspicions and an instinct to fall back on deterrence.
There is a potential trap for the west, too. Its dual-track policy helps Russia’s power structures, as they have evolved under Putin, to limp on. The Kremlin and its agencies engage in international behaviour that the west finds disagreeable. But the west can hardly try to undermine them without running the risk that Russia would plunge into instability. Is the west really prepared for the huge uncertainties of a world in which the existing power structures in Moscow unravel before any domestic alternative is available to take their place?
PiS unveils ‘Polish Deal’ to lift economy
Poland’s conservative-nationalist government has set out plans to boost health spending and cut income tax, as part of a sweeping programme designed to bolster the economy in the wake of the pandemic.
The so-called Polish Deal, which will include support for housebuyers, pensioners and families, as well as tax cuts for low and middle-earners, is widely regarded as an effort by the ruling Law and Justice party (PiS) to set out its stall ahead of parliamentary elections due at the latest in 2023.
Like most countries in the EU, Poland has been ravaged by Covid-19, with the pandemic claiming more than 70,000 lives and tipping the economy into recession for the first time in three decades.
Prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki said the Polish Deal — which will be buttressed by loans and grants from the EU’s recovery fund — was a chance to fulfil Poles’ dreams of catching up with richer countries in western Europe, as well as to expand the country’s middle class.
“We have a huge opportunity in front of us,” he said. “[In the past] we always had to worry about freedom from external oppression. But today, we can care about the freedom to decide about the rules of social and economic growth on our own sovereign Polish conditions.”
As part of the changes announced on Saturday, PiS and its two smaller allies plan to boost spending on the underfunded health system, parts of which have been overwhelmed by the pandemic, from 5 per cent of GDP in 2020 to more than 7 per cent in 2030.
The tax system will also be rejigged. The income-tax-free allowance will rise to 30,000 zloty, and the threshold at which Poles start paying the higher 32 per cent rate of tax will rise from 85,000 to 120,000 zloty per year.
Mortgage rules will also be revamped and guarantees will be provided to make it easier for the young to buy property, while the rules around building permits will be relaxed. There will also be further benefits for families with young children, and pensioners, as well as a programme of investments that PiS claimed would create 500,000 new jobs.
Morawiecki and his fellow speakers at the congress of the ruling camp gave few details on financing for the tax cuts.
Jaroslaw Gowin, deputy prime minister and head of Agreement, one of PiS’s two junior coalition partners, conceded richer Poles would have to pay more taxes, but did not go into detail. He also said the state budget would be hit.
Poland’s finance minister Tadeusz Koscinski told the FT that the tax cuts would partly be funded by faster growth. However, he added that the fiscal shortfall would also be partly covered by higher social security payments from workers and business, resulting from changes that would push more workers from self-employment to full employment contracts, and from the removal of a cap on social security payments for the self-employed.
Koscinski said the annual net cost to the state budget of the tax cuts would be about 7bn zloty. He added that there would be a further 3bn zloty in subsidies to co-finance investments by local governments that had lost revenue as a result of the tax changes.
Adam Czerniak, an economist at Polityka Insight, said the government’s assumptions about faster growth helping to cover the cost of the government’s plans were “optimistic, but I think they can happen”.
However, he expressed concern that the changes around housing — which include state guarantees on home loans for young borrowers — could cause a booming market to overheat.
“Guarantees on down payments are very risky at this point in the business cycle in the housing market,” he said.
Gastronomes look beyond pandemic to a revolution in French fine-dining
Chef Yannick Alléno used to serve a €395 menu featuring langoustines and foie gras at his three-starred Michelin restaurant near the Champs-Elysées.
But as France prepares to allow restaurants to reopen for outdoor service next week after six months of closure, he will instead be serving up burgers at his wine bar for a fraction of the price.
That a superstar chef such as Alléno, whose stable of high-end restaurants from Courchevel to Marrakesh hold more than a dozen Michelin stars, is changing strategy underscores the difficulties facing France’s grands restaurants as they seek to recover from the ravages of the coronavirus pandemic.
“We have to inspire people to come here by sparking their curiosity,” he said of the Pavillon Ledoyen, the neoclassical building that houses several of his restaurants, including the three-starred Alléno Paris.
Such temples to French gastronomy have long catered to wealthy foreign tourists, who will happily pay more than €1,000 for a meal for two as long as they experience l’art de vivre à la française. But with international travel severely curtailed by the pandemic, such customers are not expected back for some time.
Attracting locals is the new challenge, as well as retaining employees, many of whom have left the sector and its notoriously challenging working conditions. Many restaurants are also saddled with large debts after taking state-guaranteed loans to ride out the crisis.
“I have three years of struggle ahead,” said Alléno, adding that half the group’s €4m in cash reserves had been spent. “For three-star restaurants, there will be many casualties.”
His flagship restaurant used to generate more than three-quarters of revenue from foreign diners, mostly from Asia and the US. As there is little point reopening without them, the doors will remain shut until September. Alléno will for now experiment in the less-formal location as he plots an overhaul that seeks to drag fine-dining into the 21st century.
“Everything must change,” he said, quoting the title of the book he co-wrote during lockdown. In it, he called for a revamp of everything from the style of service (warmer, more personalised) to staffing (more flexible and family-friendly).
French haute gastronomie traces its roots back to visionary 19th-century chefs such as Auguste Escoffier and Marie-Antoine Carême, who created a cuisine based on rich sauces and meticulous — often theatrical — service. For decades it was considered the world’s best and became a key part of French identity.
But its popularity has faded in recent decades thanks to competition first from the flashiness of molecular gastronomy and then the pared-back Nordic style. As French haute cuisine lost ground, it became much more expensive, putting it out of the reach of many.
“The pandemic has exposed that the business model of high-end restaurants in France simply doesn’t function without tourists,” said Joerg Zipprick, co-founder of La Liste group, which ranks the world’s best restaurants.
“This is a relatively new development. It used to be that . . . a local doctor or manager would come to these places to celebrate a special occasion. No longer.”
Zipprick said that for the top chefs, many of whom had spent the past year experimenting with takeouts and meal kits, success depended on their willingness to adapt.
Diners would not want fussy and experimental dishes on their return, he predicted, but would instead want to eat good food at a nice restaurant in the company of friends and family.
“No more technical stuff or food that requires a long explanation from the waiter about the fermentation process. People don’t want their meal to be a work of art,” Zipprick said.
The last time French cuisine reinvented itself was in the 1970s when chefs such as Paul Bocuse and the Troisgros brothers created nouvelle cuisine. The movement, less opulent and calorific than the fine-dining that preceded it, put fresh and high-quality ingredients to the fore and service became less formal.
Alléno believes top restaurants must aim to tailor experiences by talking to clients beforehand about the occasion for their dinner, the guests and their tastes.
This “concierge service” approach would allow menus to be better planned, improving the customer experience and the economics for the restaurant.
“If I know I only have three people who’ll eat langoustine on a given night then I don’t need to order six kilos just in case,” he said. “It really changes things for the kitchen.”
Others are being even more radical. Daniel Humm’s three-starred Eleven Madison Park in New York will no longer serve meat and seafood when it reopens next month, as the Swiss chef seeks to show that sustainable and environmentally conscious eating can be compatible with luxury.
However, Éric Fréchon, the three-Michelin-starred chef behind restaurant Epicure at the five-star Le Bristol Paris hotel, played down expectations of radical change.
“Things will return much as they were before,” Fréchon said, noting that the hotel’s restaurants had a significant local client base. “People have missed the experience of haute gastronomie for so long they’ll be eager to come back.”
Fréchon said he would retain some coronavirus-era innovations, including the €1,390 “gastronomy and to bed” package that is marketed as a one-night staycation for locals that includes dinner in their suite or hotel room.
“For New Year’s Eve we had 60 servers running back and forth to rooms, it was really difficult,” he said. “But it allowed us to reach new clients who perhaps would not have dared to come to a three-star restaurant. Now we have to keep them.”
Additional reporting by Domitille Alain in Paris
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