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Russian troops and coup fears fuel tensions in Central African Republic election



With rebel groups joining forces, the incumbent accusing his rival of fomenting a coup and Russia sending troops to keep the peace — tensions are high ahead of this week’s election in the Central African Republic.

The poll on Sunday is set to be a crucial test for a two-year-old peace agreement that has failed to fully quell rebel violence and for Russian sway in the country as it seeks to expand its global sphere of influence.

President Faustin-Archange Touadéra, a Russian ally, is expected to win a second term on Sunday against 15 other candidates in the mineral-rich country after the constitutional court rejected the candidacy of ex-president François Bozizé because he is under UN sanctions.

If Mr Touadéra lost, or his victory was disputed, it could destroy the peace agreement most of the country’s rebel groups signed in February 2019, said Hans De Marie Heungoup, of the International Crisis Group (ICG). That deal, which was partly brokered by Russia, has frayed.

“If the elections are not conducted very well, they have the potential to spoil even the very little stability that the country has got,” he said. A deepening security crisis would have regional implications, threatening neighbouring Chad, Sudan, South Sudan and Cameroon.

Supporters of Mr Touadéra at his rally in Bangui. If he loses the election on Sunday, it would constitute a significant defeat for Moscow
Supporters of Mr Touadéra at his rally in Bangui. If he loses the election on Sunday, it would constitute a significant defeat for Moscow © Camille Laffont/AFP/Getty
Mr Touadéra, centre, has been cultivated by Russia through arms deals and the powerful Wagner Group whose mercenaries train local soldiers
Mr Touadéra, centre, has been cultivated by Russia through arms deals and the Wagner Group, whose mercenaries train local soldiers © Camilee Laffont/AFP/Getty

Armed groups, which have proliferated since the peace deal, control roughly two-thirds of the country despite the presence of a 13,000-troop UN peacekeeping mission. In recent days, at least three armed groups have joined forces, taking control of a number of villages on the roads out of the capital Bangui, while the country’s fourth-largest city Bambari was briefly seized by rebels on Tuesday. The government has accused Mr Bozizé of planning a coup using the armed groups, which he has denied.

Russia has sent hundreds of troops at Mr Touadéra’s request, according to the CAR government, while the UN peacekeeping force is on its highest alert. The G5+ group — which includes France, Russia, the US, EU, African Union and World Bank — issued a joint statement on Sunday calling on the rebel groups and Mr Bozizé to lay down their arms.

Mr Bozizé, a former general who appointed Mr Touadéra as prime minister in 2008, returned to CAR last year after six years in exile. He is the subject of an international warrant for alleged assassinations and torture, which he denies. 

Victor Tokmakov, first secretary of the Russian embassy, presents graduation diplomas to CAR military recruits in 2018
Victor Tokmakov, first secretary of the Russian embassy in CAR, presents graduation diplomas to newly trained military recruits in 2018 © Florent Vergnes/AFP/Getty
A CAR soldier stands on a roof while guarding Bambari town hall last month. The country’s fourth-largest city was briefly seized by rebels this week
A government soldier stands on a roof while guarding Bambari town hall last month. The country’s fourth-largest city was briefly seized by rebels this week © Camilee Laffont/AFP/Getty

“The biggest security problem at the moment is not the armed groups but what François Bozizé will do after the election,” said Thierry Vircoulon, research associate at the Paris-based Institut Français des Relations Internationales. 

If Mr Touadéra won in the first round of what was likely to be an election fraught with irregularities, “then the whole of the opposition will understand that they have lost everything . . . and they will realise that they don’t have much to lose in starting a new rebellion”, Mr Vircoulon added.

Moscow has cultivated Mr Touadéra as an ally through arms deals and the powerful Kremlin-connected Wagner Group, whose mercenaries train local soldiers and protect the president and whose national security adviser is a former Russian spy.

“You can’t be a global power if you are only in the Middle East or Balkans, you need to be everywhere, and being in CAR is a good door for the [central Africa] sub region”, including bigger, more resource-rich economies such as Congo-Brazzaville or Cameroon, said ICG’s Mr Heungoup.

“Russia had a monopoly in Sudan, which is now being challenged by the US so CAR could be taking more importance,” he said.

While Russia is the most influential foreign country in politics and Mr Touadéra has turned away from France, the former colonial ruler remains a key donor and French companies, including oil company Total and telecoms provider Orange, do business in CAR. 

Earlier this month, Facebook disrupted a disinformation campaign linked to the French military that targeted francophone Africa, touted French policy in the region and criticised Russian involvement in CAR.

Both countries have supported rebel groups, according to an October report by the Washington-based watchdog group The Sentry

A Touadéra defeat would constitute a significant loss for Moscow, while France had less at stake because its influence in the region was both wider and deeper, said Mr Heungoup. Still, CAR has long been seen by France as among its closest francophone African allies.

“Having one of their very, very close countries moving out of their sphere of influence, symbolically and geopolitically, will be a big blow, said Mr Heungoup. “And [doubly] so because this gap will be filled by Russia.”

Like much of sub-Saharan Africa, CAR — one of the poorest countries in the world — has escaped the worst of the health impacts of the pandemic. But its economy has been battered, and 1.9m of its 5m people are now food insecure, up by 300,000 from last year and expected to rise by another 400,000 by mid-2021, according to the UN.

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Emerging Markets

Australia calls Great Barrier Reef warning politically motivated




Australia has labelled a draft decision by the UN’s World Heritage Committee to include the Great Barrier Reef on its “in danger” list as politically motivated.

The committee, which is chaired by Tian Xuejun, China’s vice-minister for education, and selects Unesco World Heritage sites, proposed adding the world’s largest collection of coral reefs to the danger list because of the damaging impact of climate change and coastal development.

The designation could ultimately lead to the reef losing its World Heritage status, although officials said listing was intended to prompt emergency action to safeguard a living structure that stretches 2,300km along Australia’s eastern coast.

But Sussan Ley, Australia’s environment minister, said the government had been “blindsided” by the committee’s finding and alleged there was a lack of consultation and transparency. She added that Canberra would challenge the draft decision.

“When procedures are not followed, when the process is turned on its head five minutes before the draft decision is due to be published, when the assurances my officials received and indeed I did have been upended, what else can you conclude but that it is politics?” she said.

That the World Heritage Committee is chaired by a senior Chinese official has stoked suspicions in Canberra that it had been singled out over its diplomatic and trade clash with Beijing.

China-Australia relations have soured following Canberra’s call last year for an inquiry into the origins of Covid-19 and Beijing’s imposition of tariffs on Australian wine and barley imports.

Ley said she and Marise Payne, Australia’s foreign minister, had already spoken with Audrey Azoulay, Unesco director-general, to complain about the draft decision.

But scientists downplayed the suggestion that the “in danger” listing was politically motivated. Three mass bleaching events in five years demonstrated the need for the government to do more to tackle climate change, they said.

“I’m seeing some press coverage saying this is all a plot by China not to buy wine, lobsters and to screw the Barrier Reef. I think that’s pretty far-fetched given that the draft decision released overnight will be voted on by 21 countries,” said Terry Hughes, professor of marine biology at James Cook University.

The controversy will heap further international pressure on Canberra, which has been pressed by the US, UK and others to commit to a national target of net-zero emissions by 2050.

In a draft decision due to be voted on next month, the committee urged Canberra to “provide clear commitments to address threats from climate change, in conformity with the goals of the 2015 Paris Agreement, and allow to meet water quality targets faster”.

It noted the loss of almost one-third of shallow-water coral cover following a “bleaching” event in 2016 — a process linked to warmer than normal water that can lead to a mass die-off of coral.

The row over the “in danger” listing occurred at a difficult time for Australia’s conservative coalition, which is embroiled in internal squabbling over climate policies.

On Monday, Barnaby Joyce, a climate sceptic and supporter of coal mining, ousted Michael McCormack to become leader of the National party, the junior coalition partner to the Liberal party, and Australia’s deputy prime minister. Joyce is expected to oppose any move to commit to net zero by 2050.

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The slippery slope of politicised street names




It is confusing for taxis and Amazon delivery drivers, but in England I live in a Kent village on a street called simply “The Street”. Google Maps disconcertingly emphasises the “The” in big letters.

Surely no street name can be less political than mine. But in a much bigger conurbation, the decision by the mayor of Budapest to impose new street names in the Hungarian capital to highlight China’s human rights abuses is the latest example of the tendentious politicisation of place names around the world. 

There is no doubt about Gergely Karacsony’s purpose. By calling the streets around the site of a proposed Budapest campus of China’s Fudan University “Dalai Lama Road”, “Free Hong Kong Road” and “Uyghur Martyrs Road”, the mayor wants to embarrass Viktor Orban, the authoritarian and pro-China prime minister of Hungary.

He seems to be succeeding. In the face of public protests, Orban is now hesitating to impose the Chinese university project he previously championed to please Communist party leaders in Beijing. You can see why Karacsony did it. He is an opposition politician, and Orban has steadily undermined Hungarian democracy, limiting the scope for other forms of political action. 

But renaming streets for short-term political ends can be the start of a slippery slope. It does nothing to satisfy residents or help visitors find the place they are looking for, which are surely the main reasons for having names at all. And future mayors might change them all back again or impose their own ephemeral political views on the city nomenclature. 

Phnom Penh, the Cambodian capital, has undergone such a bewildering series of street name conversions since the end of French colonial rule — a reflection of sometimes violent regime changes — that avenues are often known to locals by several different names and visitors struggle to navigate the city.

When I lived in the Zambian capital Lusaka in the 1980s, one avenue was briefly renamed Saddam Hussein Boulevard after the Iraqi dictator gave a shipment of oil to the cash-strapped government of Kenneth Kaunda. Now that Saddam is dead and no longer so popular it has again been renamed, this time as Los Angeles Boulevard. But because there was already a Los Angeles Road, that too was renamed last year after national footballing hero Kalusha Bwalya.

Many political or nationalist renamings, it is true, can stand the test of time. There are countless streets and squares in France named after General Charles de Gaulle, and scarcely a substantial town in India without its MG Road in memory of Mahatma Gandhi. 

Some names, however, inevitably lose their appeal. In Madrid I bought my car from a Renault dealer in a street I was amazed to discover was still called the Calle del General Yagüe, a Francoist commander in the civil war known as the Butcher of Badajoz. The name was changed in 2017 to Calle de San Germán. 

A court has just ruled that another Madrid street, called the Calle de los Caídos de la División Azul, can retain its name because the fallen Spanish soldiers who fought for the Nazis on the eastern front might be considered victims of the war as well as perpetrators. 

But the lesson must be that there is little to be gained for mayors, governments or inhabitants if street names are changed purely for short-term political advantage, whether for celebration or denigration.

In our small village in Kent, there was not much scope for change, but change came anyway. There were always three principal roads: The Street, where the church is; Back Street, which runs parallel to it behind the village; and the main road, which joins them at the top and leads to the local towns in either direction. My first experience of the political or social motivations behind street-naming was when Back Street became Swan Lane (after a pub) and the main road was fancifully relabelled Poplar Road. 

Such cosmetic changes are innocent enough — who wants to live with an address on Back Street or the B2082? — and they have become part of the local geography. But somehow I doubt that Budapest’s Free Hong Kong Road will be called that a few years from now.

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Western powers reignite Beijing anger after G7 and Nato warnings




For more than six weeks, Taiwanese military officers wondered where the Chinese fighter jets had gone.

During May, only four entered the island’s air defence identification zone. In the first half of this month, there were incursions on only four days and a stretch of nine days without any activity at all. This compared to a previous pattern of as many as 20 incursions a month.

But on June 15, a day after US president Joe Biden and other Nato leaders issued a statement condemning China’s “stated ambitions and assertive behaviour”, 20 PLA fighter jets, four nuclear-capable bombers and four additional military aircraft entered Taiwan’s ADIZ. It was the largest number of planes ever dispatched by the People’s Liberation Army into the zone, with some of them also skirting around the southern tip and east coast of the island before turning back

One senior Taiwanese government official said Beijing could not restrain itself after the Nato communique — and a G7 summit statement issued just days earlier — criticised Beijing’s activities in the Taiwan Strait and its crackdown on Hong Kong’s pro-democracy movement.

“Beijing wanted to prove wrong those in the west whom they accuse of hyping a China threat theory,” the official said, referring to the reduced military activity in May and early June. “But of course they could not keep it up. Once Taiwan gets a little support, they have to react.”

Chinese analysts said Beijing had no choice but to show its resolve after the Biden administration accelerated its efforts to build a “united front” against China at the G7 and Nato summits — something President Xi Jinping’s administration had long feared but that never materialised when Donald Trump was US president.

“The G7 and Nato have been distorted into anti-China platforms,” said Victor Gao, a former Chinese diplomat now at the Center for China and Globalisation, a Beijing-backed think-tank. “There are increasingly large forces in China that believe if the US wants to single out China as its fundamental enemy, then let the US have an enemy.”

Beijing also responded to the G7’s criticism of its policies in Hong Kong with a show of force in the territory, where it recently snuffed out the only public commemoration of the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre on Chinese soil. In the early hours of Thursday, police arrested senior staff at the pro-democracy Apple Daily newspaper for alleged “collusion with a foreign country or with external elements to endanger national security”.

A senior officer with the Hong Kong police force’s national security division later said the arrests were related in part to more than 30 articles published in the newspaper.

Beijing’s actions around Taiwan and in Hong Kong were matched by scathing rhetoric. Zhao Lijian, a foreign ministry spokesperson and one of China’s most outspoken diplomats, said the G7 communique “exposed the bad intentions of the US and a few other countries to create antagonism and widen differences with China”.

“The US is sick,” Zhao added. “The G7 should take its pulse and prescribe medicine for it.”

Such comments appeared to contradict recent instructions from Xi, who said last month that official propaganda should “set the right tone, be open and confident but also modest, humble and strive to create a credible, loveable and respectable image of China”.

Xi, however, also noted that China was involved in a “public opinion struggle” internationally. “Powerful anti-China forces in western society want to attack and discredit China,” Lu Shaye, China’s ambassador in Paris, said last week in a state media interview. “We must fight back to safeguard our own interests. Our sovereign security and development interests are inviolable.”

Yun Sun, a China foreign policy expert at the Stimson Center in Washington, said such rhetoric reflected growing alarm in Xi’s administration. “There is a real concern in Beijing that a united front is forming [and] includes many elements that China does not wish to see such as Taiwan, maritime security and human rights,” Sun said. “That’s why we are seeing some unusually harsh responses from Beijing on G7 and Nato.”

Hong Kong police blow out candles lit by activists to mark the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre. Beijing responded to G7 criticism of its policies in Hong Kong with a show of force in the territory © AP

“Germany, France and other EU countries are hesitant to confront China as [openly as] the US,” added Shi Yinhong, a professor at Renmin University in Beijing, who advises the State Council on foreign policy issues. “But they are now closer to the US when it comes to dealing with China.”

Some Chinese officials and analysts argue that while Beijing will continue to respond forcefully when criticised over Taiwan, Hong Kong or other “core interests”, this does not preclude co-operation with the US on other issues such as climate change or global tax reform.

Fu Ying, a former Chinese ambassador to the UK, said at a recent seminar that the Biden administration wanted to “prevent China from moving forward to replace the US”. But, she added, “we hope [technological and economic] competition can be managed to ensure it is on a positive track, pushing each other to seek joint development and improvement”.

Beijing “should stand firm on matters of principle but not be too distracted by anti-China hostility”, Gao said. “In the long term China will have a larger economy than the US — no one can change that. Time is on China’s side.”

Additional reporting by Xinning Liu in Beijing

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