Connect with us


Germany’s CDU faces momentous choice on new leader after Merkel



On January 16, the Christian Democratic Union, Germany’s biggest political party, will elect a new leader. The most popular candidate will not be on the ballot.

The contest is a three-horse race between Friedrich Merz, a conservative, Armin Laschet, a moderate, and Norbert Röttgen, one of the party’s leading foreign policy experts. Whoever wins has a good chance of succeeding Angela Merkel, who is stepping down next year after 16 years as chancellor.

But in recent polls, all three lag far behind Jens Spahn, the health minister whose handling of the coronavirus crisis has thrust him into the public spotlight and sent his approval ratings soaring.

That puts him in an awkward position. Mr Spahn announced in February that he would run as Mr Laschet’s deputy. But that was before the pandemic, and his elevation to national crisis manager. For weeks, the German press has been abuzz with speculation that he might launch his own leadership bid — a scenario he has so far adamantly ruled out.

Mr Merz said he wanted to see more ‘arguments in the political centre’ — a subtle swipe at Ms Merkel’s consensual style of government
Mr Merz has said he wants to see more ‘arguments in the political centre’ — a subtle swipe at Ms Merkel’s consensual style of government © Bernd von Jutrczenka/Pool/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock

Mr Laschet, too, is insistent that they would not swap places. “We decided together on this line-up,” he told a German newspaper earlier this month. “There are a lot of people who support this team in its current set up, and that gives us strength.”

Even Mr Spahn’s closest allies think it is unlikely that he would stab Mr Laschet in the back. “There’s a saying here: ‘In politics you love betrayal but you hate the betrayer’,” said one CDU official.

But there are many in the party who hope he might reconsider. “If Spahn were to change places with Laschet, I would definitely vote for him,” said one CDU MP.

In any case, frustration is growing. “There’s paradoxical situation in the CDU,” the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ) recently said an opinion piece. “There are three candidates for the party leadership but none of them inspire much enthusiasm.”

Voting preference of respondents (%)

If Mr Spahn declines to throw his hat in the ring, another scenario might emerge involving another popular Christian Democrat: Markus Söder, leader of the CDU’s Bavarian sister party, the CSU. The two parties must hold talks early next year on fielding their joint candidate for chancellor in the Bundestag election. Usually, this is the leader of the CDU, by far the larger party.

But next year might be different. Mr Söder’s ratings have risen during the pandemic, and he is far ahead of Messrs Laschet, Merz and Röttgen. One poll, by the TV channel ZDF, found 58 per cent of people could imagine him as chancellor for the CDU/CSU. That might encourage him to put himself forward as candidate.

Such a scenario began to appear less fanciful after an unusual intervention last week by the CDU’s Wolfgang Schäuble, Bundestag president and former finance minister, who told the FAZ that the CDU/CSU candidate for chancellor “might be someone from the CSU”. Mr Schäuble noted that CSU candidates had twice stood for chancellor — Franz Josef Strauss in 1980 and Edmund Stoiber in 2002 (though he omitted to say that both lost).

The candidates prepare for last week’s live-streamed debate online, though they agree with each other on most issues
The candidates preparing for last week’s live-streamed debate online, though they agree with each other on most issues © Bernd von Jutrczenka/Pool/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock

The Christian Democrats’ dilemma came to the fore in the first live-streamed debate between the leadership candidates last week.

The three men are all roughly the same age, know each other well, hail from the western state of North Rhine-Westphalia and agreed with each other on most issues. “Is this the most exciting power struggle that Germany has to offer right now?” asked the FAZ. 

Experts say the CDU, which has governed Germany for 50 of the past 70 years, seems to be far too complacent about the seismic change German politics faces next year — when the curtain comes down on Ms Merkel’s 16 years in power.

“It doesn’t seem to be addressing its key problem — what kind of party does it want to be in the post-Merkel era? What should its policies be?” said Robert Vehrkamp, a political scientist at the Bertelsmann Foundation think-tank. 

Some slight differences came through in the leadership debate. Mr Röttgen, head of the Bundestag’s foreign affairs committee, said he wanted to make the CDU “younger, more feminine and more digital”.

Critics say a lot of the CDU’s poll strength can be attributed to Angela Merkel, who is stepping down next year after 16 years as chancellor
Critics say a lot of the CDU’s poll strength can be attributed to Angela Merkel, who steps down next year after 16 years as chancellor © REUTERS

Mr Laschet, prime minister of North Rhine-Westphalia, said one of the key challenges facing Germany was to remain an industrial power while helping to combat climate change.

Mr Merz, a former leader of the CDU parliamentary group who later quit politics to become a corporate lawyer, said he wanted to see more “arguments in the political centre” — a subtle swipe at Ms Merkel’s consensual style of government. But no such arguments were in evidence in the three men’s debate.

Despite the uncertainty over the CDU’s future leadership, it is still the country’s most popular party, well ahead of its nearest rival, the Greens. But critics point out that a lot of its poll strength can be attributed to Ms Merkel, who will not be standing next year. 

“The CDU’s problems have been papered over by Merkel’s high approval ratings, which have lulled the party into a false sense of security,” said Mr Vehrkamp. “They are massively underestimating the problems they’ll face in the post-Merkel era.”

Source link

Continue Reading
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *


Missing Belarus activist found hanged in Kyiv park




Belarus updates

A Belarusian opposition activist has been found hanged from a tree in a park near his home in Ukraine, a day after he was reported missing. Local police said his death could have been made to look like suicide.

Vitaly Shishov, who led the Kyiv-based organisation Belarusian House, which helps Belarusians fleeing persecution find their feet in Ukraine, had been reported missing by his partner on Monday after not returning from a run.

Shishov’s death follows weeks of increased pressure in Belarus by authorities against civil society activists and independent media as part of what the country’s authoritarian president Alexander Lukashenko has called a “mopping-up operation” of “bandits and foreign agents”.

Many Belarusians have fled the country since Lukashenko launched a brutal crackdown last summer after nationwide protests erupted following his disputed victory in presidential elections. About 35,000 people have been arrested in Belarus and more than 150,000 are thought to have crossed into neighbouring Ukraine.

Franak Viacorka, an aide to Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya who met UK prime minister Boris Johnson on Tuesday in London, said Shishov’s death was “absolutely shocking and unexpected to all of us”.

“He [Shishov] and his friends helped people who were moving to Ukraine,” Viacorka told the Financial Times. “They were very helpful, especially for those who have just arrived and didn’t know what to do.”

Viacorka said many activists living in Ukraine, such as Shishov who fled Belarus in 2020, had “complained about possibly being followed, and receiving threats”.

Kyiv park where Vitaly Shyshov’s body was found
The Kyiv park where Vitaly Shishov’s body was found after he failed to return home following a run © Gleb Garanich/Reuters

Downing Street said that after meeting Tsikhanouskaya, Johnson condemned the Lukashenko regime’s severe human rights violations. “The UK stands in solidarity of the people of Belarus and will continue to take action to support them,” a spokesperson said.

Ukrainian police have now launched a criminal case for the suspected murder of Shishov, including the possibility of “murder disguised as suicide”.

Yuriy Shchutsko, an acquaintance and fellow Belarus refugee who found Shishov’s body, ruled out suicide, pointing out that Shishov’s nose was broken.

“I suspect this was the action of the [Belarus] KGB . . . we knew they were hunting for us,” he told Ukrainian television.

Ihor Klymenko, head of the National Police of Ukraine, subsequently said Shishov’s body had what appeared to be “torn tissue” on his nose and other wounds, but stressed it would be up to medical examiners to determine if these were caused by beatings or the result of suicide.

There was no immediate comment from Lukashenko or his administration.

Belarusian House said: “There is no doubt that this is an operation planned by the Chekists [the Belarusian KGB] to eliminate someone truly dangerous for the regime.

“Vitalik was under surveillance,” it added. “We were repeatedly warned by both local sources and our people in the Republic of Belarus about all kinds of provocations up to kidnapping and liquidation.”

Adding to the swirl of attention on Belarus this week, Tokyo Olympics sprinter Krystsina Tsimanouskaya on Monday took refuge in Poland’s embassy after alleging she had been taken to the airport against her will, having criticised her Belarusian coaches.

The athlete has said she feared punishment if she went back to Belarus but has so far declined to link her problems to the country’s divisions.

Shishov’s death comes five years after Pavel Sheremet, a prominent Belarus-born opposition figure and journalist, was killed in an improvised bomb explosion in downtown Kyiv while driving to work at a local radio station. Lukashenko has ruled Belarus since 1994.

Ukrainian authorities at first suggested Belarusian or Russian security services could have been involved in the hit, as Sheremet was close to opposition movements in Russia as well.

Instead, officials charged three Ukrainian volunteers who supported war efforts against Russia-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine — although they steadfastly denied involvement and authorities were unable to provide a motive in what has been widely described as a flimsy case.

Additional reporting by Jasmine Cameron-Chileshe in London

Source link

Continue Reading


EU pledges aid to Lithuania to combat illegal migration from Belarus




EU immigration updates

In the latest sign of deteriorating relations between the EU and Belarus, Brussels has promised extra financial aid and increased diplomatic heft to help Lithuania tackle a migrant crisis that it blames on neighbouring Belarus and its dictator Alexander Lukashenko.

Lithuania detained 287 illegal migrants on Sunday, more than it did in the entirety of 2018, 2019, and 2020 combined, the vast majority of them Iraqis who had flown to Belarus’s capital Minsk before heading north to cross into the EU state. Almost 4,000 migrants have been detained this year, compared with 81 for the whole of 2020. 

“What we are facing is an aggressive act from the Lukashenko regime designed to provoke,” Ylva Johansson, the EU commissioner for home affairs told reporters on Monday after talks with Lithuania’s prime minister Ingrida Simonyte. “The situation is getting worse and deteriorating . . . There is no free access to EU territory.”

The EU imposed sweeping sanctions against Lukashenko’s regime in June, after he fraudulently claimed victory in last year’s presidential election and then led a brutal campaign to violently suppress protesters and jail political opponents. Lukashenko has ruled Belarus since 1994.

The rising concern over the migrant crossings, which EU officials say is a campaign co-ordinated by Lukashenko’s administration, comes as one of the country’s athletes competing in the Tokyo Olympic Games sought refuge in Poland after team management attempted to fly her home against her will after she publicly criticised their actions.

Johansson said the EU would provide €10m-€12m of immediate emergency funding and would send a team of officials to the country to assess the requirements for longer-term financial assistance, including for extra border security and facilities to process those attempting to enter.

Simonyte said that Vilnuis would require “tens of millions of euros” by the end of the year if the number of people attempting to cross the border continued at the current pace.

Lithuania’s foreign minister Gabrielius Landsbergis told the Financial Times in June that Belarus was “weaponising” illegal immigration to put pressure on the Baltic country over its housing of several opposition leaders. Since then, the flow of illegal immigrants from Iraq, Syria, and several African countries has increased sharply.

Iraqi diplomats visited Vilnius at the end of last week after Lithuania’s foreign minister flew to Baghdad in mid-July. Johannson said on Monday that EU diplomats were engaged in “intensive contacts” with Iraqi officials, which she said were “more constructive than we had hoped”.

State carrier Iraqi Airways offers flights from four Iraqi airports to Minsk, according to its website. Former Estonian president Toomas Ilves suggested on Twitter that the EU could cut its aid to Iraq “immediately until they stop these flights”.

Speaking at the border with Belarus on Monday, Johansson added that the tents provided by Lithuania were unsuitable for families. Lithuania’s interior minister Agne Bilotaite said she hoped the number of illegal migrants would subside in the coming months but that Vilnius was planning to build some housing to accommodate them over the upcoming winter.

Source link

Continue Reading


Britain’s wrong-headed approach to refugees




UK immigration updates

Thanks to the bravery of volunteers who run towards storms at sea to rescue ships’ crews, few British institutions command as much respect as the Royal National Lifeboat Institution. The charity, however, has recently had to negotiate a different kind of storm, over its efforts to help refugees who get into difficulties crossing the Channel from France. Nigel Farage, the former Brexit party leader, accused it of running a taxi service for illegal trafficking gangs. Last week, the RNLI said it had received hundreds of thousands of pounds of extra donations in response.

The RNLI has become embroiled in a now familiar story when the summer months allow more small boats to make the Channel crossing. Compared with the flows to other countries such as Spain, Italy and Greece, only a handful of migrants attempt the journey. That makes the UK’s inability to control the border in an effective and humane way — and shabby treatment of those who do make it across — no less of a scandal.

Britain’s strategy for stemming the flow has relied mostly on paying the French authorities to limit the number of boats crossing and return any that leave to France, while deterring would-be migrants through the unwelcoming environment that awaits them. Just as EU countries are dependent on their neighbours for keeping entrants down — whether Morocco for Spain or Belarus for Lithuania — the UK needs French co-operation to control the mutual border. Diplomatic spats, whether over Brexit or extra Covid quarantine restrictions on arrivals from France, have made that harder.

The UK approach manages to be simultaneously ineffective and cruel. Yvette Cooper, chair of the home affairs select committee, wrote last week to home secretary Priti Patel to complain of unacceptable conditions in the holding facility for migrants who make it to the Kent coast. A recent unannounced visit by MPs found most of those remaining in the overcrowded facility sitting on a thin mattress on the floor, with women and children in the same room as adult men.

Earlier this year, the High Court ruled that “squalid” conditions in the Napier Barracks, a temporary centre set up last year to house asylum seekers during the pandemic, were so bad as to be unlawful. While arrivals have declined since the peak seven years ago, cutbacks have led to a backlog in processing claims, leaving more in a legal limbo.

Since the start of the pandemic Britain has shut down other paths into the country, ending a resettlement scheme. This has ceded the ground to people traffickers. The “push factors” of the risk of violence and torture at home and “pull factors” of higher living standards mean many are still willing to resort to risky and illegal methods to try to reach the UK. Creating a harsh environment for those who make it has done little to dispel the widespread belief among migrants that Britain is a better destination than other European countries, and stem the flow.

That will not stop the government trying. Barristers have warned that a clause in draft border legislation could potentially make it a crime to help asylum seekers arrive in the UK, with a maximum penalty of life imprisonment; at present it is illegal to do so to earn a profit. The Home Office says the clause is aimed at criminal traffickers. But along with a suggestion to set up offshore processing centres, the provision has rightly earned criticism from human rights groups. If the government is unwilling to create safe and legal routes, its only option is to prevent people from coming in the first place. That, ultimately, will mean relying on France.

Source link

Continue Reading