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Pandemic exposes cracks in Portugal’s ‘leftwing pact’

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Portugal’s special brand of socialism, sometimes called “the fourth way”, appears to be running out of road.

As the second wave of the coronavirus pandemic batters Europe, tensions over balancing social spending and fiscal prudence are pulling apart the leftwing pact that has kept the minority Socialist party (PS) government of prime minister António Costa in power since 2015.

In recent weeks, the anti-capitalist Left Bloc (BE) and the hardline Communist party (PCP) have spurned the PS by voting with right-of-centre opposition parties to defeat the government in important parliamentary votes on public spending.

These so-called negative coalitions have led Luís Marques Mendes, a political commentator and former leader of the centre-right Social Democrats (PSD), the main opposition party, to warn of “a perfect storm” of “ungovernability”.

Mr Costa, whose “historic compromise” with the radical left has been emulated in neighbouring Spain and followed with interest by centre-left politicians across Europe, berates the BE for lacking the “political maturity” to support unpopular measures needed at a time of crisis.

Catarina Martins, the BE leader, told parliament, however, that the government was acting “as if the second wave of the pandemic didn’t exist”. Despite being one of the European countries hit hardest, she said, “Portugal is also, tragically, one of those spending the least as a percentage of national output on responding to the crisis”.

BE leader Catarina Martins said the government was acting “as if the second wave of the pandemic didn’t exist” © Jose Sena Goulao/EPA-EFE

Mr Costa secured office in late 2015 by forging an unprecedented alliance with the BE and PCP after an indecisive election that the PS lost to the centre-right. Putting aside deep ideological divisions, the parties united under the banner of rolling back austerity measures imposed by the EU and IMF during the European debt crisis.

After the PS was re-elected in October 2019 with a bigger share of the vote, but still lacking an absolute majority, efforts to renew the leftwing pact by means of a second written agreement failed. They sought instead to continue the alliance informally, with Mr Costa saying it would “impoverish democracy” if he sought allies on the right. 

Since the pandemic hit in March, however, Portugal’s health and economic crises have exposed rifts within the pact to the point where even its disparaging sobriquet of geringonça, meaning “odd contraption”, seems flattering.

“The common ground shared by the BE and the PS narrowed after the ‘reversing austerity’ agenda was exhausted during the government’s first term,” said Ana Luís Andrade, a Europe analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit. “The BE’s current focus is on increasing public investment and social protection, while Mr Costa continues to prioritise fiscal prudence. They are also at odds over labour market reform.”

Tensions came to a head in late November when, for the first time, the BE voted against a budget proposed by Mr Costa. The prime minister averted defeat by striking a deal with the PCP, which agreed to abstain in return for a package of social measures, including more spending on doctors, nurses and intensive care beds. As a result, the 2021 budget passed by just three votes.

The vote exposed the degree to which government policymaking is dependent on painstaking negotiations with radical leftwing partners and subject to defeat by ad hoc parliamentary coalitions. In all, 82 amendments were passed against the government’s will.

Most grievously for Mr Costa, opposition parties on the right united with the BE and PCP to inflict an embarrassing defeat on the government by vetoing a planned capital injection of up to €474m for Novo Banco, the so-called good bank rescued from the collapse of Banco Espírito Santo in 2014.

The defeat forced Mr Costa to reassure European officials and international investors that Portugal would honour its commitment to the struggling lender, which is controlled by a US fund. The government is taking court action to overturn the veto. 

“Every political and economic decision on which the government hopes to legislate is now an opportunity for parties on the left and right to demarcate positions and seek advantage ahead of the next election,” said Paula do Espírito Santo, a political-science professor at the University of Lisbon.

The next parliamentary ballot is scheduled for late 2023, but Ms Espírito Santo thinks it could be called early. According to a senior opposition politician, who asked not to be identified, local elections next October could become the trigger,

In the meantime, says Isabel David, who teaches politics at the University of Lisbon, the pandemic, a presidential election in January and Portugal’s presidency of the EU during the first six months of next year rule out any likelihood of a political crisis over the near term. 

“The BE knew it could afford to reject the 2021 budget because Mr Costa isn’t in a position to call a snap election,” said Ms Andrade. “A government collapse during the EU presidency would severely damage Portugal’s external credibility. Essentially, the BE decided to call Mr Costa’s bluff, and it might continue to do so.”

 



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Missing Belarus activist found hanged in Kyiv park

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Belarus updates

A Belarusian opposition activist has been found hanged from a tree in a park near his home in Ukraine, a day after he was reported missing. Local police said his death could have been made to look like suicide.

Vitaly Shishov, who led the Kyiv-based organisation Belarusian House, which helps Belarusians fleeing persecution find their feet in Ukraine, had been reported missing by his partner on Monday after not returning from a run.

Shishov’s death follows weeks of increased pressure in Belarus by authorities against civil society activists and independent media as part of what the country’s authoritarian president Alexander Lukashenko has called a “mopping-up operation” of “bandits and foreign agents”.

Many Belarusians have fled the country since Lukashenko launched a brutal crackdown last summer after nationwide protests erupted following his disputed victory in presidential elections. About 35,000 people have been arrested in Belarus and more than 150,000 are thought to have crossed into neighbouring Ukraine.

Franak Viacorka, an aide to Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya who met UK prime minister Boris Johnson on Tuesday in London, said Shishov’s death was “absolutely shocking and unexpected to all of us”.

“He [Shishov] and his friends helped people who were moving to Ukraine,” Viacorka told the Financial Times. “They were very helpful, especially for those who have just arrived and didn’t know what to do.”

Viacorka said many activists living in Ukraine, such as Shishov who fled Belarus in 2020, had “complained about possibly being followed, and receiving threats”.

Kyiv park where Vitaly Shyshov’s body was found
The Kyiv park where Vitaly Shishov’s body was found after he failed to return home following a run © Gleb Garanich/Reuters

Downing Street said that after meeting Tsikhanouskaya, Johnson condemned the Lukashenko regime’s severe human rights violations. “The UK stands in solidarity of the people of Belarus and will continue to take action to support them,” a spokesperson said.

Ukrainian police have now launched a criminal case for the suspected murder of Shishov, including the possibility of “murder disguised as suicide”.

Yuriy Shchutsko, an acquaintance and fellow Belarus refugee who found Shishov’s body, ruled out suicide, pointing out that Shishov’s nose was broken.

“I suspect this was the action of the [Belarus] KGB . . . we knew they were hunting for us,” he told Ukrainian television.

Ihor Klymenko, head of the National Police of Ukraine, subsequently said Shishov’s body had what appeared to be “torn tissue” on his nose and other wounds, but stressed it would be up to medical examiners to determine if these were caused by beatings or the result of suicide.

There was no immediate comment from Lukashenko or his administration.

Belarusian House said: “There is no doubt that this is an operation planned by the Chekists [the Belarusian KGB] to eliminate someone truly dangerous for the regime.

“Vitalik was under surveillance,” it added. “We were repeatedly warned by both local sources and our people in the Republic of Belarus about all kinds of provocations up to kidnapping and liquidation.”

Adding to the swirl of attention on Belarus this week, Tokyo Olympics sprinter Krystsina Tsimanouskaya on Monday took refuge in Poland’s embassy after alleging she had been taken to the airport against her will, having criticised her Belarusian coaches.

The athlete has said she feared punishment if she went back to Belarus but has so far declined to link her problems to the country’s divisions.

Shishov’s death comes five years after Pavel Sheremet, a prominent Belarus-born opposition figure and journalist, was killed in an improvised bomb explosion in downtown Kyiv while driving to work at a local radio station. Lukashenko has ruled Belarus since 1994.

Ukrainian authorities at first suggested Belarusian or Russian security services could have been involved in the hit, as Sheremet was close to opposition movements in Russia as well.

Instead, officials charged three Ukrainian volunteers who supported war efforts against Russia-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine — although they steadfastly denied involvement and authorities were unable to provide a motive in what has been widely described as a flimsy case.

Additional reporting by Jasmine Cameron-Chileshe in London



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EU pledges aid to Lithuania to combat illegal migration from Belarus

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EU immigration updates

In the latest sign of deteriorating relations between the EU and Belarus, Brussels has promised extra financial aid and increased diplomatic heft to help Lithuania tackle a migrant crisis that it blames on neighbouring Belarus and its dictator Alexander Lukashenko.

Lithuania detained 287 illegal migrants on Sunday, more than it did in the entirety of 2018, 2019, and 2020 combined, the vast majority of them Iraqis who had flown to Belarus’s capital Minsk before heading north to cross into the EU state. Almost 4,000 migrants have been detained this year, compared with 81 for the whole of 2020. 

“What we are facing is an aggressive act from the Lukashenko regime designed to provoke,” Ylva Johansson, the EU commissioner for home affairs told reporters on Monday after talks with Lithuania’s prime minister Ingrida Simonyte. “The situation is getting worse and deteriorating . . . There is no free access to EU territory.”

The EU imposed sweeping sanctions against Lukashenko’s regime in June, after he fraudulently claimed victory in last year’s presidential election and then led a brutal campaign to violently suppress protesters and jail political opponents. Lukashenko has ruled Belarus since 1994.

The rising concern over the migrant crossings, which EU officials say is a campaign co-ordinated by Lukashenko’s administration, comes as one of the country’s athletes competing in the Tokyo Olympic Games sought refuge in Poland after team management attempted to fly her home against her will after she publicly criticised their actions.

Johansson said the EU would provide €10m-€12m of immediate emergency funding and would send a team of officials to the country to assess the requirements for longer-term financial assistance, including for extra border security and facilities to process those attempting to enter.

Simonyte said that Vilnuis would require “tens of millions of euros” by the end of the year if the number of people attempting to cross the border continued at the current pace.

Lithuania’s foreign minister Gabrielius Landsbergis told the Financial Times in June that Belarus was “weaponising” illegal immigration to put pressure on the Baltic country over its housing of several opposition leaders. Since then, the flow of illegal immigrants from Iraq, Syria, and several African countries has increased sharply.

Iraqi diplomats visited Vilnius at the end of last week after Lithuania’s foreign minister flew to Baghdad in mid-July. Johannson said on Monday that EU diplomats were engaged in “intensive contacts” with Iraqi officials, which she said were “more constructive than we had hoped”.

State carrier Iraqi Airways offers flights from four Iraqi airports to Minsk, according to its website. Former Estonian president Toomas Ilves suggested on Twitter that the EU could cut its aid to Iraq “immediately until they stop these flights”.

Speaking at the border with Belarus on Monday, Johansson added that the tents provided by Lithuania were unsuitable for families. Lithuania’s interior minister Agne Bilotaite said she hoped the number of illegal migrants would subside in the coming months but that Vilnius was planning to build some housing to accommodate them over the upcoming winter.



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Britain’s wrong-headed approach to refugees

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UK immigration updates

Thanks to the bravery of volunteers who run towards storms at sea to rescue ships’ crews, few British institutions command as much respect as the Royal National Lifeboat Institution. The charity, however, has recently had to negotiate a different kind of storm, over its efforts to help refugees who get into difficulties crossing the Channel from France. Nigel Farage, the former Brexit party leader, accused it of running a taxi service for illegal trafficking gangs. Last week, the RNLI said it had received hundreds of thousands of pounds of extra donations in response.

The RNLI has become embroiled in a now familiar story when the summer months allow more small boats to make the Channel crossing. Compared with the flows to other countries such as Spain, Italy and Greece, only a handful of migrants attempt the journey. That makes the UK’s inability to control the border in an effective and humane way — and shabby treatment of those who do make it across — no less of a scandal.

Britain’s strategy for stemming the flow has relied mostly on paying the French authorities to limit the number of boats crossing and return any that leave to France, while deterring would-be migrants through the unwelcoming environment that awaits them. Just as EU countries are dependent on their neighbours for keeping entrants down — whether Morocco for Spain or Belarus for Lithuania — the UK needs French co-operation to control the mutual border. Diplomatic spats, whether over Brexit or extra Covid quarantine restrictions on arrivals from France, have made that harder.

The UK approach manages to be simultaneously ineffective and cruel. Yvette Cooper, chair of the home affairs select committee, wrote last week to home secretary Priti Patel to complain of unacceptable conditions in the holding facility for migrants who make it to the Kent coast. A recent unannounced visit by MPs found most of those remaining in the overcrowded facility sitting on a thin mattress on the floor, with women and children in the same room as adult men.

Earlier this year, the High Court ruled that “squalid” conditions in the Napier Barracks, a temporary centre set up last year to house asylum seekers during the pandemic, were so bad as to be unlawful. While arrivals have declined since the peak seven years ago, cutbacks have led to a backlog in processing claims, leaving more in a legal limbo.

Since the start of the pandemic Britain has shut down other paths into the country, ending a resettlement scheme. This has ceded the ground to people traffickers. The “push factors” of the risk of violence and torture at home and “pull factors” of higher living standards mean many are still willing to resort to risky and illegal methods to try to reach the UK. Creating a harsh environment for those who make it has done little to dispel the widespread belief among migrants that Britain is a better destination than other European countries, and stem the flow.

That will not stop the government trying. Barristers have warned that a clause in draft border legislation could potentially make it a crime to help asylum seekers arrive in the UK, with a maximum penalty of life imprisonment; at present it is illegal to do so to earn a profit. The Home Office says the clause is aimed at criminal traffickers. But along with a suggestion to set up offshore processing centres, the provision has rightly earned criticism from human rights groups. If the government is unwilling to create safe and legal routes, its only option is to prevent people from coming in the first place. That, ultimately, will mean relying on France.



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