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Index providers react to Donald Trump’s Chinese investment bans

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President Donald Trump’s move to curb US investment in securities of Chinese companies with links to the military has put pressure on both global index providers and exchange traded fund providers who are scrambling to decide on their response within the tight deadline.

Mr Trump signed the order in mid-November prohibiting “US persons” from “transactions” in securities of 31 Chinese companies that the Department of Defense identified as “Communist Chinese military companies”. The order takes effect on January 11, 2021.

As fund companies in Asia seek legal advice about responding to the ban, most major global benchmark providers have rushed to consult with asset managers and clients, as well as with other index users, on whether to drop the relevant securities of the sanctioned companies.

“The executive order set off a fire drill among many benchmark providers,” according to a Morningstar research report issued last week.

This article was previously published by Ignites Asia, a title owned by the FT Group.

Index and ETF providers have been given a “very short period of time” to communicate with each other on how to respond, said Jackie Choy, Morningstar’s Hong Kong-based director of ETF research for Asia.

At least four major global benchmark providers have rolled out consultations on whether they should eliminate the blacklisted Chinese groups from their indices.

S&P Dow Jones Indices is the latest to announce exclusions from major indices as a result of the consultation.

 FTSE Russell said last Friday that it would remove companies named by the US government from some of its indices on December 21, including China Railway Construction Corporation, China Communications Construction Company and Hikvision.

For indexing firms that have established rules for dealing with sanctions applied in different global markets, it has been somewhat easier to proceed.

For instance, the FTSE cited a clause of its own policies that should sanctions, either primary or secondary, be imposed that prohibit US, UK or European Union natural or legal persons from investing in particular countries, industries, named companies or companies linked to sanctioned individuals, it would delete the sanctioned securities from the FTSE Russell indices.

Both US index provider MSCI and S&P Dow Jones have concluded consultations with their index users.

These pre-announcement consultations are “crucial” to asset managers and institutions, as they will have to decide which side they are on regarding the exclusions, said a Hong Kong-based senior executive with a global manager, running a sizeable ETF business.

“I’d say it’s mostly a business decision rather than a compliance decision for index providers,” the executive said. “Benchmark providers want to keep their users happy but if most of the end investors are from the US, the only way is to get rid of the companies because they are not investible to them.”

Rebecca Chua, Hong Kong-based founder and chief executive of ETF provider Premia Partners, said that although her company had very little exposure to the blacklisted companies, she and her team had been in regular discussions with her index provider China Securities Index about the order.

Ms Chua said both parties agreed that it would be better for ETF providers to take a more prudent approach, and at least wait and see whether this executive order would remain in place.

“US-China tensions evolve every day, and could become quite different under the new administration. We just have to keep on monitoring what is going on,” she said.

China Mobile and China Telecom are among the largest companies by market capitalisation on the new US blacklist. Both are constituents of many prominent indices with Chinese equities exposure, according to a research note from Morningstar.

China Mobile and China Telecom had respective weightings of 0.57 per cent and 0.06 per cent in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, and 1.33 per cent and 0.15 per cent in the MSCI China Index at the end of October.

JPMorgan notified its clients on November 17 that it would exclude new debt issuance from the sanctioned companies from its indices, according to a note seen by Ignites Asia.

JPMorgan Asia Credit Index, its Asia-credit focused benchmark, “is expected to be the most impacted”, the note read.

The JPMorgan suite of emerging market indices currently includes 72 fixed-credit securities issued by 16 sanctioned Chinese companies.

The Hong Kong-based senior executive said that ETF managers were also trying to determine which organisations would be responsible for identifying “US persons” and whether a US manager’s Hong Kong-domiciled ETFs would be included in the order.

*Ignites Asia is a news service published by FT Specialist for professionals working in the asset management industry. It covers everything from new product launches to regulations and industry trends. Trials and subscriptions are available at ignitesasia.com.



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Emerging Markets

Tech-heavy Taiwan stock index plunges on Covid outbreak

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Taiwan’s stock market, home to some of the world’s biggest tech companies, suffered one of the largest drops in its history as investors were rocked by a worsening Covid-19 outbreak.

The Taiex fell as much as 8.55 per cent on Wednesday, the index’s worst intraday fall since 1969, according to Bloomberg. It finished down 4.1 per cent.

Construction, rubber, automotive and financials — sectors retail investors had been shifting into from technology in recent months — were the worst hit in the sell-off.

The world’s largest contract chipmaker, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, which has a 30 per cent weighting in the index, fell as much as 9.3 before recovering ground to be down 1.9, while Apple supplier Hon Hai Precision Industry, also known as Foxconn, dropped 9.8 per cent before paring losses to be down 4.7 per cent.

While Taiwan’s sell-off was related to domestic Covid-19 problems, it followed recent declines in global markets as investors worried about possible inflationary pressures.

The falls came as Taiwan’s government was expected to partially close down public life to contain a worsening coronavirus outbreak — something the country had managed to avoid for more than a year.

“The reason that triggered the escalated sell-off during the trading session is the new [Covid-19] cases to be reported this afternoon, and probably the raising of the pandemic alert level,” said Patrick Chen, head of Taiwan research at CLSA. “On top of that, the market before today was already at a point where the index was at an inflection point.”

Taiwan’s strict border controls and quarantine system and meticulous contact tracing measures had helped it avoid community spread of Covid-19 until recently.

That success, which allowed Taipei to forego lockdowns, helped boost the local economy, which grew about 3 per cent last year and 8.2 per cent in the first quarter of 2021.

But health authorities announced 16 locally transmitted confirmed cases on Wednesday, for three of which the infection source was unclear — a sign of widening spread in the community. Authorities had confirmed seven untraced cases on Tuesday, and domestic media reported that the government might introduce partial lockdown measures.

President Tsai Ing-wen called on the public to be vigilant but avoid panicking.

Taiwan’s stock market rose almost 80 per cent over the past year, peaking at a historical high late last month. It is now down 8.5 per cent from that mark.

Retail investors have increasingly moved out of technology stocks in recent weeks, reducing the sector’s weight in trading volume from almost 80 per cent at its height to just over 50 per cent.

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China factory gate prices climb on global commodities boom

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The price of goods leaving factories in China rose at the fastest pace in more than three years, on the back of a rally in commodities supported by the country’s economic recovery.

The producer price index rose 6.8 per cent in April year-on-year, beating economists’ expectations and surpassing March’s increase of 4.4 per cent.

The rate was driven in part by comparison with a low base last year in the early stages of the pandemic. But it also reflects a global surge in the prices of raw materials that was first stoked by China and now incorporates expectations of recovering global demand.

While PPI prices in China have leapt, economists suggested there was limited spillover into consumer prices and that the central bank was unlikely to react. China’s consumer price index added just 0.9 per cent in April, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Tuesday, although it touched a seven-month high.

“It tells us that demand at this moment is super strong,” said Larry Hu, head of greater China economics at Macquarie, of the PPI data, although he suggested policymakers would see the increase as “transitory” and “look through it”.

“We’re going to see some reflation trends,” he added.

Signs of tightening in China’s credit conditions have drawn scrutiny from global investors eyeing the prospect of higher inflation as the global economy recovers from the pandemic, especially in the US, which releases consumer price data on Wednesday.

China’s PPI index remained mired in negative territory for most of 2020 following the outbreak of coronavirus, but has started to gather momentum this year. Gross domestic product growth in China returned to pre-pandemic levels in the final quarter of 2020.

An industrial frenzy in China has stoked demand for commodities such as oil, copper and iron ore that make up a significant portion of the index and have helped to push it higher. 

Policymakers in China have moved to tighten credit conditions, as well as attempted to rein in the steel sector. Ting Lu, chief China economist at Nomura, said the relevant question now was “whether the rapid rise of raw materials prices will dent real demand, given pre-determined credit growth”.

Retail sales in China have lagged behind the growth rate of industrial production, putting downward pressure on CPI, which has also been weakened by lower pork prices that rose sharply on the back of African swine fever. Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, rose 0.7 per cent in April 

Julian Pritchard-Evans, senior China economist at Capital Economics, said that producer prices were feeding through into the rebound in consumer prices, but also suggested that pressures on the former were “likely to be mostly transient”.

He added that output prices for durable consumer goods were rising at their fastest level on record.

China’s rapid recovery has been driven by its industrial sector, which has churned out record quantities of steel and fed into a construction boom that policymakers are now trying to constrain. On Monday, iron ore prices hit their highest level on record, while copper prices also surged.



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Iron ore hits record high as commodities continue to boom

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The price of iron ore hit a record high on Monday in the latest sign of booming commodity markets, which have gone into overdrive in recent weeks as large economies recover from the pandemic.

The steelmaking ingredient, an important source of income for the mining industry, rose 8.5 per cent to a record high of almost $230 a tonne fuelled by strong demand from China where mills have cranked up production.

Other commodities also rose sharply, including copper, which hit a record high of $10,747 a tonne before paring gains. The increases are part of a broad surge in the cost of raw materials that has lasted more than a year and which is fanning talk of another supercycle — a prolonged period where prices remain significantly above their long term trend.

The price of timber has also hit a record high as US sawmills struggle to keep pace with demand in the run-up to peak homebuilding season in the summer.

“Commodity demand signals are firing on all cylinders amid a synchronised recovery across the world’s economic powerhouses,” said Bart Melek, head of commodity strategy at TD Securities.

Strong demand from China, the world’s biggest consumer of commodities, international spending on post-pandemic recovery programmes, supply disruptions and big bets on the green energy transition explain the surge in commodity prices.

Commodities have also been boosted by a weaker US dollar and moves by investors to stock up on assets that can act as a hedge against inflation.

The S&P GSCI spot index, which tracks price movements for 24 raw materials, is up 26 per cent this year.

Strong investor demand pushed commodity assets held by fund managers to a new record of $648bn in April, according to Citigroup. All sectors saw monthly gains with agriculture and precious metals leading the way, the bank said.

Agricultural commodities have had an especially strong run owing to rising Chinese demand and concerns of a drought in Brazil. Dryness in the US, where planting for this year is under way, is also adding to the upward rise in prices. Corn, which is trading at $7.60 a bushel and soyabeans at $16.22, are at levels not seen since 2013.

“From a macro economic environment to strong demand and production concerns, the ingredients are all there for the supercycle,” said Dave Whitcomb of commodity specialist Peak Trading Research.

Rising copper and iron ore prices are a boon for big miners, which are on course to record earnings that will surpass records set during the China-driven commodity boom of the early 2000s.

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JPMorgan reckons Rio Tinto and BHP will be the largest corporate dividend payers in Europe this year, paying out almost $40bn to shareholders. Shares in Rio, the world’s biggest iron ore producer, hit a record high above £67 on Monday.

Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, has crept back up
towards $70 a barrel, which it surpassed in March for the first time in
more than a year, recovering ground lost as the pandemic
slashed demand for crude and roiled markets.

Supply cuts by leading oil producers have helped to bolster the market
as consumption has begun to recover around the world.

While some Wall Street banks have hailed the start of a new supercycle, with some traders talking of a return to $100 a barrel oil, others are less convinced. The International Energy Agency said oil supplies still remain plentiful meaning any talk of a supercycle is premature.



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