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No-deal back on the menu after Johnson’s dinner date turns sour

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It was a dinner that was supposed to provide “political impetus” for a post-Brexit trade deal, but Boris Johnson emerged from three hours of desolate talks with Ursula von der Leyen in Brussels with one British official muttering simply: “No deal.”

The omens were bad from the start; from the moment on Wednesday night when Ms von der Leyen, the European Commission president, instructed Mr Johnson to put on his face mask, it was clear this was going to be an awkward encounter.

The photo call brought the clash of political cultures into sharp relief: Mr Johnson, the champion of British sovereignty, baggy-suited, hair askew, alongside the sleek figures of Ms von der Leyen and her chief negotiator Michel Barnier, defenders of the EU’s rules-based order.

The jocular menu of scallops and turbot — a none-too-subtle nod to the row over post-Brexit fishing access to UK waters — seemed less amusing as the evening drew on.

British officials claim Mr Johnson had travelled to Brussels hoping to find a compromise in talks that have stalled on a fair competition “level playing field” and fishing rights, but got nowhere. “They didn’t really respond at all,” lamented one person briefed on the dinner.

The UK and EU negotiating teams ahead of their dinner in Brussels on Wednesday night © Andrew Parsons/No 10 Downing Street

A senior EU diplomat directly briefed on the dinner said Mr Johnson had demonstrated no obvious appetite to reach a deal, reproducing old proposals that failed to respect the basic principles of the EU single market.

“It was described as an almost apathetic performance — the clear overall impression from the UK prime minister was that he was not going to compromise because that would be politically too costly,” the diplomat said.

Two officials briefed on the talks said Mr Johnson and Ms von der Leyen — neither of whom are known for their grasp of the negotiating details — did not engage in a private one-to-one discussion. Mr Barnier and his British counterpart David Frost were in the room throughout.

The result was stalemate. Some British officials railed in vitriolic terms at Mr Barnier and Ms von der Leyen’s refusal to budge and the tension was quickly relayed to the media and diplomats.

Ireland’s Prime Minister Micheál Martin © John Thys/Reuters

The general conclusion, as dawn broke in Brussels and London on Thursday, was that Britain’s post-Brexit transition period will end in an acrimonious divorce, with no trade deal in place. Micheál Martin, the Irish prime minister, admitted the situation was “very difficult” while Mr Johnson later warned people to get ready for the “strong possibility” of a no-deal Brexit.

The pound fell by more than 1% against the dollar to $1.3246, while the chances of a trade deal before the end of the year slid to 43.4 per cent on the betting platform Smarkets, down from 64.5 per cent on December 7.

In spite of the gloom, there were glimmers of hope that a deal could yet be salvaged — not least because both sides want a deal and Lord Frost and Mr Barnier were instructed to carry on talking in Brussels.

Downing Street said: “The PM does not want to leave any route to a possible deal untested.” Both sides would take stock on Sunday to see if there was any point in the talks continuing.

The issue of fisheries is principally a haggle: the number of years in which EU boats would be guaranteed continued access to UK waters and the amount of fish they can catch. Both sides believe the issue can be resolved.

The main sticking point remains the EU’s insistence on an “evolution mechanism” to make sure that Britain does not undercut the European regulatory model in future, gaining a competitive advantage.

The EU insists that if the UK fails to mirror improved regulations on the continent in future, it should have the right to impose punitive tariffs. Mr Johnson regards this plan as an unacceptable attack on British sovereignty.

But if Mr Johnson rejected a deal on those grounds, the economic rationale would be far from clear.

Mr Johnson appears willing — under a no-deal scenario — to accept damaging tariffs across the whole economy in just three weeks’ time to avoid the theoretical risk of punitive tariffs on some goods under theoretical circumstances at some point in the future.

Jonathan Jones, former head of the government legal service, argued that Mr Johnson’s argument that Brexit was all about regaining sovereignty is also flawed.

“The argument about ‘sovereignty’ is fatuous,” he tweeted. “It is sovereignty which gives the UK power to enter into any trade deal (or choose not to). The question is what’s the balance of benefits/obligations. If UK is not prepared to accept ANY obligations, well . . . ”

France’s President Emmanuel Macron with Ursula von der Leyen © Olivier Matthys/Reuters

The evolution mechanism would make it possible for both sides to agree on updating standards. Either side, as a last resort, could curtail access to its market if it could prove the level playing field was no longer assured.

Mr Johnson’s allies thought he had a deal last week on the issue but claim that Emmanuel Macron, French president, insisted last Thursday on a tougher mechanism; British officials said it would set a “very low bar” for retaliatory tariffs. They want to reset the negotiating clock to the start of last week.

While the EU side insists it didn’t table new demands, Mr Johnson’s aides argue the new proposal is overly prescriptive, undermining the country’s sovereign right to design its own regulations and allowing Brussels to “unilaterally whack us” without having to prove any “high level of harm”.

Mr Johnson has specifically criticised the “automatic” nature of such a mechanism, seen by some in Brussels as a hint he might be willing to accept a compromise including some kind of arbitration mechanism.

But as EU leaders met in Brussels on Thursday for their quarterly summit, one senior EU diplomat said the mood — as in Downing Street — was increasingly resigned to a “no deal”.

“There is frankly a lack of trust, a lack of energy and a lack of commitment to reach a deal,” the diplomat said. “We’re down to the bottom of our mandate and the aspects of that mandate that protect the EU’s internal market we won’t let go of — we can’t ruin the EU. So what can we do?”





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Thousands protest against French Covid health pass rules

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French politics updates

Over 200,000 people marched in cities across France on Saturday in the biggest turnout of three consecutive weekends of protests, calling for an end to what they see as draconian rules forcing them to get vaccinated against their will.

They marched down the streets of Paris, Lyon, Marseille, and elsewhere, shouting “This is a health dictatorship!” and “No vaccination, no health pass!”, in protests that included a wide range of social and political movements. 

Staunch Communists marched with supporters of the far-right Rassemblement National party and some from the gilets jaunes movement against a new law making Covid-19 vaccination compulsory for healthcare workers and requiring a health pass for anyone wanting to enter public places such as restaurants, bars and high-speed trains.

“This is an experimental vaccine, we do not know what all of the side effects will be for ourselves or our children,” said Catherine Largo, a 42-year-old dental assistant, who is legally obliged to get vaccinated before the autumn but says she will refuse to do so.

The vaccines used in France have been extensively tested around the world and approved by the European and French medical authorities.

“I won’t be able to find other work, because what else would I do?” she said, as she arrived at one of four protests taking place in Paris on Saturday afternoon. “We should have the choice, we should have the liberty to choose.”

Although the final version of the law was watered down last weekend, a vocal minority of French citizens remain up in arms about the rules which they believe infringe on their personal liberties. But despite the pockets of angry opponents, the policy has so far proved successful at boosting vaccination rates and has been met with approval from the wider public.

Over 60 per cent of people are in favour of the health pass to enter public places and 70 per cent support compulsory vaccination for caregivers, according to an Ipsos-Sopra Steria poll conducted this month.

Anti-health pass campaigner François Asselineau has tested positive for Covid-19 © AFP via Getty Images

Around 204,000 people marched on the streets of France on Saturday, up from 161,000 a week before and 114,000 the week before that, according to estimates from the interior ministry.

One protester missing this week was François Asselineau, president of the pro-Frexit Popular Republican Union party and an ardent campaigner against the health pass, who was unable to attend the march in Paris after he tested positive for Covid-19 on Friday. 

The 2022 presidential candidate said he was suffering from “body aches, fever and a cough” in a video posted on his party’s website, but told his followers that he had obtained ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine as a treatment, both controversial drugs which scientists say have no proven benefit against Covid-19.

Macron announced the extended application of the health pass in the midst of a vaccination campaign that was losing momentum while the highly infectious Delta variant was spreading fast.

So far his decision to power ahead with the hardline vaccination strategy appears to have paid off. The number of first doses being administered per day has jumped back up to more than 350,000 after stagnating around 160,000 last month, according to data from the government compiled by Covidtracker.fr. 

France has overtaken the US in the proportion of its population that is fully vaccinated — 52 per cent against 50 per cent in the US and 56 per cent in the UK, according to Our World in Data.

Only 7 per cent of people admitted to hospital with Covid-19 in France between May 31 and July 11 had been fully vaccinated, according to data released by the French government this week.



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Turkey’s marine crisis: ‘death knells are ringing for Sea of Marmara’

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For a decade, marine biologist Nur Eda Topcu has fought to preserve delicate corals off the Istanbul coastline, which environmentalists say are threatened by the dumping of industrial waste, fuel and sewage.

Now she fears a new threat may hasten the end of the Sea of Marmara’s coral reefs. A gelatinous substance colloquially known as sea snot has in recent months choked aquatic life, blighted fishing and repelled swimmers.

Long brown streaks of the marine mucilage were still visible across the Marmara in late July, while the gooey foam sank below the surface settling on the rare corals. Scientists warn that the sea, whose mix of Mediterranean and Black Sea currents foster coral usually found at far deeper depths, itself is at risk.

“The death knells are ringing for the Marmara,” said Topcu after surfacing from a recent dive to clean the slime that coated normally fuchsia-hued corals off an Istanbul archipelago. “We can’t stop the mucilage. It’s smothering the gorgonians [and] infecting them with harmful bacteria.” She fears most of Marmara’s soft, red Paramuricea clavata, listed as a vulnerable species of coral, will perish this year.

Eda Eryalçın Topçu (right), Marine biologist at Istanbul University, and Serço Ekşiyan, of the Deniz Yaşamını Koruma Derneği (Marine Life Conservation Society) during a research dive in the Marmara Sea south of Istanbul
Nur Eda Topcu, right, and Serco Eksiyan, of the Marine Life Conservation Centre, during a research dive © Bradley Secker/FT

A thick layer of marine mucilage known also as ‘sea snot’ covers the surface of the Marmara Sea
A thick layer of marine mucilage covers the surface of the sea © Bradley Secker/FT

Factories have nearly doubled the deluge of wastewater they discharge into Turkey’s seas in recent years, according to official statistics. The 50,000 tankers that sail through the Marmara each year illegally dump waste and fuel, according to one municipal monitor. Almost two-thirds of the nation’s industry, including an oil refinery, carmakers, chemical plants and power stations, is concentrated in the region.

Most wastewater from Istanbul, Turkey’s largest city, is only treated to remove solids, then pumped to the bottom of the sea. “We use it as our cesspool,” said Levent Artuz, a hydrobiologist at the Marmara Environmental Monitoring Project and author of a new book A Recent History of the Polluting of the Sea of Marmara.

The situation was not helped by the fact that sea temperatures had climbed by an average two degrees Celsius in the Marmara since the start of this century as pollution trapped heat, he said. A state project that diverted the Ergene River, one of Europe’s most toxic waterways, to the Marmara last year was “the tipping point”.

“The essential problem isn’t mucilage. That’s just a link in the chain of decades of degradation,” Artuz said. “We have zero chance of recovering the Sea of Marmara as it was. What we have to do now is figure out how to prevent the Marmara from harming us.”

Sea snot and pollution can be seen in the Marmara Sea
Long brown streaks of the marine mucilage seen across the Marmara Sea in late July © Bradley Secker/FT

The borders of the Marmara Sea, which has been heavily affected by the ‘sea snot’
Scientists and fishermen say the current flare-up is unprecedented © Bradley Secker/FT

In recent years, marine life has died in mass mortality events, and there have been infestations of jellyfish and algal blooms such as red tides and mucilage.

But scientists and fishermen say the current flare-up is unprecedented. Phytoplankton is flourishing because of nutrient-rich sewage and fertiliser from agricultural runoff while overfishing has wiped out populations of small fish and crustaceans that would consume the algae.

Gone are the mackerel, tuna, swordfish and other seafood that Istanbul was known for. This year’s haul was down 90 per cent from 2020 as mucilage clogged and dragged off nets, said Erdogan Kartal, the head of Istanbul’s fishing co-operative. “Even if we could supply fish markets, customers aren’t buying out of disgust.”

Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey’s president, has vowed to crack down on polluters and “save our seas from this scourge of mucilage”. Thousands of cubic metres of the sea snot had been vacuumed up, the country’s environment minister said. In early July, he pronounced the Marmara “cleaner and bluer” than before.

Turkey is the only G20 country that has not ratified the Paris accords on climate change, and grassroots movements to protect the environment are often viewed as provocateurs by the government.

Authorities have refused to register a new Green party eager to fight climate change. Scientists also say that a planned shipping canal from the Black Sea to the Marmara could deplete oxygen in the Marmara and promote hydrogen sulphur gas that would envelop Istanbul with the stench of rotten eggs. Erdogan’s transportation minister argues that the cleaner water coming through from the Black Sea would improve the quality of the Marmara.

Along the way, there have been successes for Topcu and members of Istanbul’s Marine Life Conservation Society (MLCS). They secured protected status for the tiny outcrop of Neandros this April, stopping boats from dropping anchors or trawling for fish near its corals. They spent two summers transplanting fan-like yellow sea whips to Neandros after a nearby colony of the golden Eunicella cavolini was buried in debris from a government construction project.

“We carried them like a heart or kidney for transplant, keeping them in cold water and in the dark to prevent shock,” said Serco Eskiyan of the MLCS. It took more than 100 dives to harvest and replant 300 corals 30 metres down.

Eda Eryalçın Topçu (left), Marine biologist at Istanbul University, preparing her equipment prior to a research dive next to Tavsan Adasi
Topcu, left, prepares her research equipment before diving in the Sea of Marmara © Bradley Secker/FT

Eda Eryalçın Topçu, Marine biologist at Istanbul University, shows a photo from a research dive next to Tavsan Adasi, in the Marmara Sea south of Istanbul, after repeatedly applying good bacteria to the coral, to combat the ‘sea snot’ which continues to kill the sea bed ecosystem
A photo from a dive. Sea snot continues to kill the seabed ecosystem, clogging corals © Bradley Secker/FT

But Eskiyan, who has dived the waters off the islands since the 1970s and knows the area “like the rooms in my house”, was unable to locate the transplants in July, blinded by the sea snot that reduced visibility to a metre or two. “It looks like a different planet,” said Topcu.

A generation ago, the Marmara’s rich fauna included seahorses, poisonous scorpionfish and great white sharks, now all gone, though Eskiyan still occasionally confronts a rare angular roughshark when he hunts for “ghost nets” abandoned by industrial fishing boats that choke the corals. The MLCS has collected 32,000 square metres of the meshing since 2015.

“I have faith in the sea’s ability to renew itself from the damage people do. But now I question how much longer it can fight back,” Topcu said.



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Ransomware attacks rise despite US call for clampdown on cybercriminals

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Ransomware updates

In mid-June, US president Joe Biden held talks with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin to discuss a recent scourge of cyber attacks against the US, including by Russian-based criminal ransomware hackers. 

Biden has said he told Putin in no uncertain terms that “certain critical infrastructure should be off limits to cyber attack — period”. Nevertheless, data show that ransomware attacks continue apace, including in sectors such as healthcare and education. It is unclear whether Biden will take further action in light of this. 

Ransomware, which usually involves hackers seizing an organisation’s data or computer systems and only releasing access if a ransom is paid, has long plagued businesses large and small. The first known ransomware virus, PC Cyborg, was recorded in 1989, with victims infected via floppy disk and told to send a $189 cheque to an address in Panama.

Today, these financially motivated hacks are far more sophisticated — and are proliferating fast. Attacks have quadrupled during the pandemic, SonicWall data show, partly because the shift to remote working has left staff more vulnerable than if they were connecting to more secure corporate networks. 

Chart showing that ransomware attempts reached an unprecedented level in 2021

Additionally, hackers have swapped demanding cheques for requesting hard-to-track cryptocurrencies, meaning that as the price of bitcoin has risen during the past year, the business of ransomware has become all the more lucrative. It is also easier to launch attacks with little to no technical knowhow, given the growing market for “ransomware-as-a-service”, where hackers maintain their ransomware code but rent it out to others and take a cut of any extortion payouts. 

While known attacks have reached unprecedented levels, the story of what we do not know — given that there are few rules around disclosure — may be far worse. Earlier this week, Bryan Vorndran, assistant director of the FBI Cyber Division and other cyber agency officials called for mandatory reporting rules around attacks, so that accurate data can be gathered and analysed by the US government.

Chart showing the median size of companies targeted by ransomware (number of employees)

Small businesses with little spare resources have tended to be the hardest hit by ransomware attackers. But the matter was thrust into the spotlight earlier this year after several audacious attacks on critical infrastructure such as the Colonial Pipeline, which led to fuel shortages for several days on the US east coast, the Irish health system and Brazilian meat supplier JBS. All of these attacks were believed to originate from Russia-based ransomware hackers, although the US government has accused Chinese state-backed groups of also orchestrating attacks.

The number of ransomware gangs stretches into the dozens and continues to proliferate as the economics remain so profitable. Vorndran said the FBI tracked 100 gangs, using an algorithm to rank them and the effect that each has on the economy. The largest one rakes in an estimated $200m a year in revenues, he said.

Chart showing that ransomware demands can often be negotiated down

To help victims fight the gangs, a cottage industry for “ransomware negotiators” has emerged. These middlemen are tasked by victims with haggling down the ransom payments. As go-betweens, they also collect data on attacks, learning the playbooks of various groups in order to best know how to speak to them. 

According to data from Coveware, the average ransom payment has fallen in the second quarter to $136,576, from more than $200,000 in the first quarter, amid an emergence of smaller ransomware groups. But in the majority of attacks — about 80 per cent — hackers are using the newer tactic of threatening to leak data as extra leverage in extorting victims. About half of these “leak threat” victims paid out in the second quarter, Coveware said.

Chart showing publically reported ransomware attacks on US healthcare, public, state or local government and schools, by month

Unfortunately, the negotiators’ services continue to be in high demand. According to data on reported attacks collated by Recorded Future, in the US there have been 10 attacks on healthcare, nine on schools and 10 on public state and local government groups during June and July this year. Despite Biden urging Putin last month to crack down on the criminal groups and warning against attacks on 16 critical entities, attacks on many of these key sectors have continued.

“The volume of targeted attacks on government organisations and enterprises that impact civilians, countries and the global economy will not end without a change in approach,” said Bill Conner, the chief executive of SonicWall.



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