Connect with us

Company

Charting market cross currents, S&P 500 violates the breakout point

Published

on


Technically speaking, a previously tame October pullback accelerated to start this week, inflicting damage in spots.

Against this backdrop, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite remain relatively resilient, though key technical tests are in play, and the bigger-picture technicals are not one-size-fits-all.

Before detailing the U.S. markets’ wider view, the S&P 500’s
SPX,
-0.12%

 hourly chart highlights the past two weeks.

As illustrated, the S&P has extended its October downturn, violating the breakout point (3,428).

The downturn places the 50-day moving average, currently 3,408, firmly under siege. Tuesday’s early session high (3,407.9) has matched the 50-day amid an extended retest.

Delving slightly deeper, the February peak (3,393) marks a familiar inflection point.

Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
-0.53%

 has drawn more aggressive selling pressure.

In its case, the blue-chip benchmark has placed distance firmly under its 50-day moving average, currently 28,012.

The prevailing downturn punctuates a failed test of major resistance, circa 28,400, an area also detailed on the daily chart. Bearish price action.

Against this backdrop, the Nasdaq Composite
COMP,
+0.58%

remains stronger than the other benchmarks, narrowly holding its 50-day moving average, currently 11,317.

Still, the index has violated its first notable support — the 11,448-to-11,460 area — an inflection point also detailed below.

Widening the view to six months adds perspective.

On this wider view, the Nasdaq has extended its late-October downturn.

In the process, the index has violated its first notable support (11,460) an area closely matching the October gap and its former projected target.

On further weakness, the 50-day moving average, currently 11,317, is followed by the breakout point (11,245). An eventual violation of these areas would raise a caution flag.

Delving deeper, likely last-ditch support matches the October low (11,033), the level from which the early-month rally originates. The Nasdaq’s intermediate-term bullish bias gets the benefit of the doubt barring a violation.

Looking elsewhere, the Dow industrials’ backdrop remains softer than the other benchmarks.

Consider that its prevailing downturn originates from resistance closely matching its former range top (28,400). (The S&P and Nasdaq violated their corresponding levels just Monday.)

More immediately, the index has violated its 50-day moving average, exhibiting relative weakness versus the other benchmarks. Monday’s 650-point single-session plunge marked the Dow’s worst day since early September.

Tactically, recall that the 50-day moving average (in blue) underpinned the May, June and late-July lows.

So viewed in isolation, the Dow’s aggressive downdraft under the 50-day raises an intermediate-term caution flag.

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 remains relatively stronger than the Dow industrials.

Still, Monday’s downturn inflicted the first notable damage in weeks.

Specifically, the S&P has violated its breakout point (3,428), pulling in to an extended test of the 50-day moving average, currently 3,408.

The bigger picture

Collectively, a previously tame October pullback has started to inflict technical damage in spots.

Amid the cross currents, the prevailing bigger-picture backdrop is not one-size-fits-all.

On a headline basis, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has violated its 50-day moving average, the Nasdaq Composite has maintained its 50-day, and the S&P 500 has split the difference, gravitating to its 50-day moving average.

To be sure, the prevailing backdrop does not hinge on the 50-day moving average — or any single variable — though the trending indicator in this case exemplifies a market divergence. The major benchmarks are doing slightly different things.

Moving to the small-caps, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF is digesting a rally to eight-month highs.

Tactically, notable support broadly spans from about 158.80 to 159.80, levels closely matching the post-breakout low and the breakout point.

An extended retest is underway amid this week’s increased volume.

Similarly, the SPDR S&P MidCap 400 ETF has sustained a break to eight-month highs.

In its case, notable support broadly spans from about 356.40 to 360.20.

Combined, the small- and mid-cap benchmarks are acting well technically — based on today’s backdrop — though a violation of the breakout points would raise a question mark.

Looking elsewhere, the SPDR Trust S&P 500
SPY,
-0.16%

 has extended its October downturn amid increased volume.

In the process, the SPY has edged under its 50-day moving average, currently 340.25.

Tactically, major support matches the February peaks — the 338.34-to-339.08 area — levels formerly defining the SPY’s record highs.

Placing a finer point on the S&P 500, the index has violated major support (3,428), a familiar inflection point detailed repeatedly.

This area effectively underpinned last week’s price action. The pending retest from underneath should be a useful bull-bear gauge.

More immediately, an extended test of the S&P’s 50-day moving average, currently 3,408, remains underway. To reiterate, Tuesday’s early session high (3,407.9) has matched the 50-day.

On further weakness, the former breakout point (3,393) rests nearby, a level matching the February peak.

Delving deeper, likely last-ditch support (3,328) matches the late-September gap — also the early-2020 breakout point — an area from which the steep early-October rally originates.

As always, it’s not just what the benchmarks do, it’s how they do it. But generally speaking, the S&P 500’s intermediate-term bias remains bullish barring a violation of the 3,328 area.

Also see: Charting a successful technical test, S&P 500 nails the breakout point.

Tuesday’s Watch List

The charts below detail names that are technically well positioned. These are radar screen names — sectors or stocks poised to move in the near term. For the original comments on the stocks below, see The Technical Indicator Library.

Drilling down further, the SPDR S&P Retail ETF
XRT,
-0.02%

 is acting well technically. (Yield = 1.2%.)

The group started October with a strong-volume rally, rising to tag record highs.

By comparison, the subsequent pullback has been flat, likely positioning the group to extend its uptrend.

Tactically, the breakout point (53.30) is followed by the 50-day moving average, currently 51.98. Delving slightly deeper, an inflection point matches the early-October gap and the late-September range top (51.60). A posture higher signals a bullish bias.

More broadly, the group remains well positioned on the three-year chart, rising from a continuation pattern hinged to the massive early-2020 V-shaped reversal.

Meanwhile, the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF — profiled Monday — continues to act well technically. (Yield = 3.4%.)

As illustrated, the group has knifed atop its 200-day moving average, rising to briefly tag four-month highs. The strong-volume rally punctuates a double bottom defined by the July and September lows.

Underlying the upturn, the group’s relative strength index (not illustrated) has also registered four-month highs, improving the chances of more decisive follow-through.

Tactically, the 200-day moving average, currently 40.22, closely matches the group’s former range top. A breakout attempt is in play barring a violation.

Moving to specific names, Logitech International S.A.
LOGI,
+1.75%

 is a large-cap Switzerland-based manufacturer of computer peripherals.

Earlier this month, the shares gapped to all-time highs, rising sharply after the company’s second-quarter results. The ensuing pullback has been fueled by decreased volume, placing the shares 11.5% under the October peak.

Tactically, the breakout point (81.20) closely matches the bottom of the gap. A sustained posture higher signals a firmly-bullish bias.

Initially profiled Sept. 23 — amid the rally atop trendline resistance — Datadog, Inc.
DDOG,
+1.98%

 has added 6.8% and remains well positioned.

The shares concluded September with a strong-volume spike, ultimately reaching record territory.

More immediately, the prevailing pullback has been fueled by decreased volume, placing the shares near the breakout point (98.00) and 18.4% under the October peak.

Delving deeper, the ascending 50- and 100-day moving averages have marked inflection points. The prevailing uptrend is intact barring a violation.

Dentsply Sirona, Inc.
XRAY,
-0.31%

 is a large-cap developer of dental products and related technologies.

Technically, the shares have recently knifed atop trendline resistance, rising after an analyst upgrade. The subsequent pullback has been comparably flat, fueled by decreased volume, positioning the shares to build on the initial breakout.

Tactically, the trendline pivots to support, and is closely followed by the 200-day moving average, currently 45.30. The prevailing recovery attempt is intact barring a violation.

Also notice the pending golden cross — or bullish 50-day/200-day moving average crossover — signaling that the intermediate-term uptrend has overtaken the longer-term trend.

Initially profiled Aug. 24, Expedia Group, Inc.
EXPE,
-4.46%

 has edged slightly higher and remains well positioned.

As illustrated, the shares have rallied to the range top, rising to challenge eight-month highs.

The strong-volume upturn punctuates an extended test of trendline support. Tactically, a near-term floor matches the former range top (97.30). A breakout attempt is in play barring a violation.

Still well positioned

The table below includes names recently profiled in The Technical Indicator that remain well positioned. For the original comments, see The Technical Indicator Library.

Company

Symbol* (Click symbol for chart.)

Date Profiled

JetBlue Airways Corp.

JBLU

Oct. 26

GameStop Corp.

GME

Oct. 26

SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF

KRE

Oct. 26

Maxim Integrated Products, Inc.

MXIM

Oct. 21

Alexion Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

ALXN

Oct. 21

Jazz Pharmaceuticals, plc

JAZZ

Oct. 21

The Travelers Companies, Inc.

TRV

Oct. 21

Micron Technology, Inc.

MU

Oct. 20

Chegg, Inc.

CHGG

Oct. 20

Gogo, Inc.

GOGO

Oct. 20

Atlassian Corp.

TEAM

Oct. 19

Vulcan Materials Co.

VMC

Oct. 19

Utilities Select Sector SPDR

XLU

Oct. 19

Northern Trust Co.

NTRS

Oct. 16

XPO Logistics, Inc.

XPO

Oct. 16

ON Semiconductor Corp.

ON

Oct. 16

Ford Motor Co.

F

Oct. 15

Texas Instruments, Inc.

TXN

Oct. 15

Skyworks Solutions, Inc.

SWKS

Oct. 14

Amazon.com, Inc.

AMZN

Oct. 13

First Solar, Inc.

FSLR

Oct. 13

Nevro Corp.

NVRO

Oct. 12

Teradyne, Inc.

TER

Oct. 12

SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF

XHB

Oct. 9

Broadcom, Inc.

AVGO

Oct. 9

STMicroelectronics N.V.

STM

Oct. 9

Shake Shack, Inc.

SHAK

Oct. 9

SPDR S&P Biotech ETF

XBI

Oct. 8

Alexion Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

ALXN

Oct. 8

Twilio, Inc.

TWLO

Oct. 8

Cloudflare, Inc.

NET

Oct. 7

Ceridian HCM Holding, Inc.

CDAY

Oct. 7

Guess, Inc.

GES

Oct. 7

Gap, Inc.

GPS

Oct. 6

Motorola Solutions, Inc.

MSI

Oct. 6

Sunnova Energy International, Inc.

NOVA

Oct. 6

Marvell Technology Group,Ltd.

MRVL

Oct. 5

Qorvo, Inc.

QRVO

Oct. 2

NCR Corp.

NCR

Oct. 2

LGI Homes, Inc.

LGIH

Oct. 2

SailPoint Technology Holdings, Inc.

SAIL

Oct. 1

Martin Marietta Materials, Inc.

MLM

Sept. 30

Whirlpool Corp.

WHR

Sept. 29

Abercrombie & Fitch Co.

ANF

Sept. 29

American Eagle Outfitters

AEO

Sept. 28

Twitter, Inc.

TWTR

Sept. 28

Blueprint Medicines Co.

BPMC

Sept. 28

Zendesk, Inc.

ZEN

Sept. 23

Datadog, Inc.

DDOG

Sept. 23

Scientific Games Corp.

SGMS

Sept. 23

Maxar Technologies, Inc.

MAXR

Sept. 18

V.F. Corp.

VFC

Sept. 14

Crocs, Inc.

CROX

Sept. 14

Five Below, Inc.

FIVE

Sept. 10

Dow Inc.

DOW

Sept. 10

Eastman Chemical Co.

EMN

Sept. 10

CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.

CRWD

Sept. 9

International Paper Co.

IP

Sept. 3

Anaplan, Inc.

PLAN

Sept. 2

Beyond Meat, Inc.

BYND

Sept. 1

Medtronic

MDT

Aug. 28

Celanese Corp.

CE

Aug. 26

Norfolk Southern Corp.

NSC

Aug. 25

Westlake Chemical Corp.

WLK

Aug. 25

Deere & Co.

DE

Aug. 24

Expedia Group, Inc.

EXPE

Aug. 24

Johnson Controls International

JCI

Aug. 21

Adobe, Inc.

ADBE

Aug. 20

Canadian Solar, Inc.

CSIQ

Aug. 20

General Motors Co.

GM

Aug. 20

Starbucks Corp.

SBUX

Aug. 18

Builders FirstSource, Inc.

BLDR

Aug. 18

Steel Dynamics, Inc.

STLD

Aug. 17

Elanco Animal Health, Inc.

ELAN

Aug. 17

Brinker International, Inc.

EAT

Aug. 13

Enphase Energy, Inc.

ENPH

Aug. 13

Nike, Inc.

NKE

Aug. 11

Nucor Corp.

NUE

Aug. 11

Freeport McMoRan, Inc.

FCX

Aug. 10

Natera, Inc.

NTRA

Aug. 10

McDonald’s Corp.

MCD

Aug. 7

Industrial Select Sector SPDR

XLI

Aug. 6

Sunrun, Inc.

RUN

Aug. 5

Penn National Gaming, Inc.

PENN

July 30

Procter & Gamble Co.

PG

July 29

SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF

XME

July 28

iShares MSCI South Korea ETF

EWY

July 28

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.

AMD

July 23

Best Buy Co., Inc.

BBY

July 22

Materials Select Sector SPDR

XLB

July 20

Caterpillar, Inc.

CAT

July 20

Progressive Corp.

PGR

July 17

Livongo Health, Inc.

LVGO

July 17

Roku, Inc.

ROKU

July 16

Cognizant Technology Solutions, Inc.

CTSH

July 16

Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR

XLP

July 15

Home Depot, Inc.

HD

July 15

Costco Wholesale Corp.

COST

July 15

Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR

XLY

July 13

SunPower Corp.

SPWR

July 13

Walmart, Inc.

WMT

July 8

Big Lots, Inc.

BIG

July 1

Tandem Diabetes Care, Inc.

TNDM

July 1

Danaher Corp.

DHR

June 24

RH

RH

June 24

Lowe’s Companies

LOW

June 19

Fiverr International, Ltd.

FVRR

June 19

Etsy, Inc.

ETSY

June 17

HubSpot, Inc.

HUBS

June 8

Square, Inc.

SQ

June 8

United Parcel Service, Inc.

UPS

June 5

FedEx Corp.

FDX

June 3

SPDR S&P Retail ETF

XRT

June 3

iShares MSCI Japan ETF

EWJ

May 29

SolarEdge Technologies, Inc.

SEDG

May 29

Synopsis, Inc.

SNPS

May 27

Agilent Technologies, Inc.

A

May 15

Qualcomm, Inc.

QCOM

May 12

Salesforce.com, Inc.

CRM

May 8

Facebook, Inc.

FB

May 7

Spotify Technology S.A.

SPOT

May 5

Dollar General Corp.

DG

Apr. 28

ServiceNow, Inc.

NOW

Apr. 27

Five9, Inc.

FIVN

Apr. 24

Chewy, Inc.

CHWY

Apr. 24

Tesla, Inc.

TSLA

Apr. 23

VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF

SMH

Apr. 17

Veeva Systems, Inc.

VEEV

Apr. 17

Okta, Inc.

OKTA

Apr. 16

Target Corp.

TGT

Apr. 16

Invesco QQQ Trust

QQQ

Apr. 14

DocuSign, Inc.

DOCU

Apr. 3

Zscaler, Inc.

ZS

Apr. 3

Apple, Inc.

AAPL

Mar. 27

Nvidia Corp.

NVDA

Mar. 27

Zoom Video Communications, Inc.

ZM

Mar. 19

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF

EEM

Mar. 19

SPDR Gold Shares ETF

GLD

Jan. 2

Microsoft Corp.

MSFT

Feb. 22

* Click each symbol for current chart.



Source link

Continue Reading
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Company

These money and investing tips can help you stay upright against the market’s headwinds

Published

on

By


Don’t miss these top money and investing features:

These money and investing stories, popular with MarketWatch readers over the past week, can give you greater knowledge about the financial markets’ current condition as you monitor your portfolio and plan ahead. Plus, check out several short videos about whether to include bitcoin and other cryptocurrency in your portfolio and how to go about it if you do.

Sign up here  to get MarketWatch’s best mutual funds and ETF stories emailed to you weekly!

INVESTING NEWS & TRENDS
A long-held investing belief — that stocks always beat bonds over the long term — turns out to be untrue

Recent history has shown that equities tend to outperform, but a review of returns back to 1793 reveals a different story.
A long-held investing belief — that stocks always beat bonds over the long term — turns out to be untrue

The Dow and the Nasdaq are diverging. Why that’s honey for stock market bears

Disconnected trading pattern hasn’t looked so ominous since the internet bubble years.
The Dow and the Nasdaq are diverging. Why that’s honey for stock market bears

Why Generation ‘I’ — YOLO investors who’ve never seen a bear market — should worry us all

First-time stock investors are making money now but market veterans know how this story ends.
Why Generation ‘I’ — YOLO investors who’ve never seen a bear market — should worry us all

5 things this index pioneer wants you to know about today’s investing challenges

Straight advice on money and market behavior from David Booth of Dimensional Fund Advisors.
5 things this index pioneer wants you to know about today’s investing challenges

Why switching investment strategies to get a market edge only leaves you behind the pack

Pick an investment plan with a good long-term record and follow it.
Why switching investment strategies to get a market edge only leaves you behind the pack

Space infrastructure is the next investment frontier and SPACs are a launch pad

The global space industry is expected to generate revenue of at least $1.4 trillion by 2030
Space infrastructure is the next investment frontier and SPACs are a launch pad

5 things to watch out for before you invest in SPACs

Similarities to the dot.com and subprime bubbles are unmistakable.
5 things to watch out for before you invest in SPACs

Long-tenured CEOs can take a business from good to great — and these companies have them

A vision for success and shareholders willing to see it through can give a business a competitive edge.
Long-tenured CEOs can take a business from good to great — and these companies have them

Franklin Templeton’s view on interest rates

Sonal Desai, CIO for Franklin Templeton’s Fixed Income Group, discusses her expectations for U.S. and global interest rates.
Franklin Templeton’s view on interest rates

Educating today’s investors about maneuvering through markets

Joe Moglia, former chairman & CEO of TD Ameritrade, discusses how investors can better maneuver volatile markets with assistance from trading platforms.
Educating today’s investors about maneuvering through markets

These 3 alternative income streams may boost portfolio returns

As traditional income strategies, like bonds and dividend stocks, got challenged by the pandemic, some investors turned to pass-through securities in search of income. Here’s what you need to know.
These 3 alternative income streams may boost portfolio returns

What Coinbase’s public debut means for bitcoin and crypto

The listing of Coinbase, the largest bitcoin exchange in the U.S., introduces a new way to invest in cryptocurrencies.
What Coinbase’s public debut means for bitcoin and crypto

Why Mike Novogratz sees bitcoin reaching $500,000 by 2024

Galaxy Digital’s Mike Novogratz explains the outlook for crypto as Coinbase goes public.
Why Mike Novogratz sees bitcoin reaching $500,000 by 2024

How to devise long-term strategies for investing in digital assets

Katie Stockton and Bryan Routledge discuss strategies and the rationale for holding crypto with Barron’s Ben Levisohn.
How to devise long-term strategies for investing in digital assets



Source link

Continue Reading

Company

Opinion: I took advantage of the 2020 RMD rule but now my 1099-R looks wrong — what should I do?

Published

on

By


Q: I took advantage of the 2020 RMD rule and returned what I had taken from my IRA thinking there would be no taxes. I just got a 1099-R showing the full RMD. That can’t be right. How do I correct it?

—Pauline

A.: Pauline,

If the 1099-R is incorrect, you will need to contact the firm that issued the statement to get it corrected. However, the 1099-R is probably correct.

Read: Are there new RMD rules this year?

Under the law, the firm issuing the 1099-R has no responsibility for reporting how much of a distribution is taxable. That responsibility rests on your shoulders as a taxpayer. The issuing firm need only report what was paid out of the IRA on 1099-R.

Not sure where to retire? Let us help you find the right spot

That does not mean you will pay any tax. Any funds returned to the IRA by Aug. 31, 2020 is considered a rollover and is not taxable. Normally, Required Minimum Distributions (RMD) are not eligible for rollover, but IRS guidance after enactment of the CARES Act that waived RMD for 2020 changed that. The guidance stated the normal 60-day time limit for rollovers would not apply and instead instituted a fixed deadline of Aug. 31, 2020 to return such distributions and avoid taxation.

Read: It’s not too late to save on your 2020 tax bill — here’s how

I get similar questions about 1099-Rs every year. The reporting of the gross distribution looks like an error but in most cases, it is correct and the person receiving it simply hasn’t learned how it is accounted for yet.

Here’s how the accounting typically works.

As with any gross amount reported on Form 1099-R, you declare the amount that is not taxable when you file your 2020 tax return. What I hear most tax preparers would do in your situation is put the gross distribution amount from 1099-R on line 4a as per the normal procedure. Then, they would place a zero in 4b of your Form 1040, and put a note on the return near those lines that it was “returned to the IRA under the CARES Act,” “CARES Act rollover,” “CARES Act,” or simply “Rollover.”

Read: These are the best new ideas in retirement

If you did not return all of distribution by the deadline, the portion that was not returned would be taxable. You would put that number on line 4b.

Read: 5 things to do if you inherit a Roth IRA

As I mentioned a moment ago, the discrepancy between the gross distribution reported and what should actually be taxable comes up in other situations. Three of the most common are other rollovers, Qualified Charitable Distributions (QCD), and distributions from accounts that had received after-tax contributions.

In all those cases, the reporting process looks like what I described above. You put the gross distribution on line 4a and the taxable portion on Line 4b. Then note why the numbers are different with “rollover,” “QCD,” or “See Form 8606” on the 1040. Form 8606 is the form used to determine the taxable amount of an IRA distribution when nondeductible contributions have been made to any of one’s IRA accounts.

If you have a question for Dan, please email him with ‘MarketWatch Q&A’ on the subject line.

Dan Moisand’s comments are for informational purposes only and are not a substitute for personalized advice. Consult your adviser about what is best for you. Some questions are edited for brevity.



Source link

Continue Reading

Company

Video: Why Mike Novogratz sees bitcoin reaching $500,000 by 2024

Published

on

By



Galaxy Digital’s Mike Novogratz explains the outlook for crypto as Coinbase goes public.





Source link

Continue Reading

Trending