Boris Johnson has warned that unless there is a “fundamental change of approach” by the EU then Britain will exit its post-Brexit transition period at the end of the year without a trade deal, as he sought to increase pressure on EU leaders to give ground.
Mr Johnson claimed that a European Council meeting in Brussels had left him convinced the EU was not ready to offer the UK a “Canada-style” trade agreement, a reference to a preferential relationship that would minimise tariffs and smooth commercial ties. EU leaders including Germany’s Angela Merkel responded by stressing that a deal was still possible if both sides moved.
In a dramatic televised clip, the UK’s prime minister said Britain would approach the prospect of leaving the EU single market on January 1 without a trade deal with “high hearts”.
He did not explicitly say he was walking away from talks, but said to the EU: “Only come to us if there is some fundamental change of approach.” He added that, in those circumstances, “of course we would be ready to listen”.
Downing Street later hardened its language on the impasse, with a spokesman for Mr Johnson saying the EU had in effect ended the trade talks.
Mr Johnson’s televised intervention will be seen as an attempt to force a crisis in the negotiations with the EU, which remain deadlocked on the issue of EU access to UK fishing waters and Britain’s subsidy regime.
The immediate response from Brussels was to confirm that its negotiating team would travel to London “as planned” next week for talks, something already announced on Thursday by EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier.
Asked about Mr Barnier’s declared intention to come to London next week for more discussions, Mr Johnson’s spokesman said: “There’s not any point in Michel Barnier coming to London next week if he’s not prepared to discuss all of the issues on the basis of a legal text in an accelerated way without the UK being required to make all the moves.”
However, EU leaders at their summit meeting underlined their desire for talks to continue but warned that the bloc would not do a deal at any price.
Speaking after the EU summit meeting on Friday, French president Emmanuel Macron said: “The sovereign leaders of 27 member states that made the decision to stay in the EU do not have the job of making the British prime minister happy.”
He said the EU was conscious that a deal “will require efforts, particularly from the UK”, adding that “it is the UK a lot more than us that needs an agreement”.
But at the same time, France’s leader went further than ever before in outlining the terms of a possible compromise on the vexed issue of fishing rights, acknowledging that access to British waters would not be “as ambitious” as now.
The pound fell 0.3 per cent against the euro after Mr Johnson’s statement at midday, in which he told businesses and travellers to prepare for a new relationship with the EU from January 1 with no trade deal in place — meaning tariffs and quotas on trade in goods and substantial regulatory hurdles to trade in services.
EU officials noted that, despite Mr Johnson’s threat to walk away, much of the future-relationship deal was politically settled, with the negotiations now focused on a core set of sticking points: fishing rights in British waters, level playing field conditions for business, and dispute-settlement arrangements for the trade deal.
“We must be prepared to make compromises,” said Ms Merkel. “If we want an agreement, both sides must move towards each other, each side has his principles, but there is still room for compromise.”
But in a bleak assessment of the state of negotiations, Mr Johnson said: “They want the continued ability to control our legislative freedoms and fisheries in a way that is completely unacceptable for an independent country.”
He said the EU summit in Brussels appeared to “completely rule out a Canada-style deal” and that he had concluded that the country should prepare for January 1 on principles “more like Australia’s”. Australia has no trade deal with the EU but is trying to negotiate one.
“With high hearts and complete confidence we will prepare to embrace the alternative and we will prosper mightily,” Mr Johnson added. Britain would try to negotiate side deals to minimise disruption, he said.
Vaccine cocktails cause headaches for Italy’s government
Buongiorno and welcome to Europe Express.
Italian cocktails such as the Aperol Spritz are being enjoyed in many European capitals these sunny days, but mixing Covid-19 shots is proving a recipe with potentially toxic effects for the government of Mario Draghi. We will explore why recent flip-flops on this latest vaccination trend are dominating the political debate in Italy.
Sticking with toxic politics, an en masse resignation at the Oslo city council has highlighted the difficulties even respectable Nordic oil producing countries face in working out how to meet their international climate obligations.
As for the EU’s stalled Banking Union, the ball did not move yesterday because of multiple differences between eurozone finance ministers gathered in Luxembourg. Eurogroup chief Paschal Donohoe, who has been trying to land a “work plan” setting out how to advance the complex initiative, said it would take more time to agree the plan between member states and that he would return to the matter later this year. Here is a full rundown of why the project remains blocked.
This article is an on-site version of our Europe Express newsletter. Sign up here to get the newsletter sent straight to your inbox every weekday morning
Toxic cocktail recipe
Mixing Covid-19 vaccines risks turning into a toxic cocktail recipe for Mario Draghi’s government, as an increasing number of Italians begin to shun immunisation, writes FT Milan correspondent Silvia Sciorilli Borrelli.
Italian authorities last week banned the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine for people younger than 60. At the same time, they sought to impose mRNA jabs, such as BioNTech/Pfizer and Moderna, as the second dose for almost 1m people who had already received a first dose of the vaccine.
Both moves were prompted by the death of an 18-year-old woman (who allegedly suffered from low blood platelets) from a rare form of blood clot two weeks after receiving her first AstraZeneca dose.
But this latest change in guidelines sparked panic among the public, with thousands of people cancelling their vaccination appointments. Adding to the public scare was Marco Cavaleri, a senior European Medicines Agency official, who was misquoted in Italian media as saying that the AstraZeneca jab should be banned altogether.
The EU regulator reiterated this week that the advantages of the AstraZeneca vaccine outweighed the risks for all age groups.
Nevertheless, the Italian government has come under fire for failing to restrict it for younger people earlier and for continuing to give the public mixed messages on a vaccine that has been discontinued in several European countries and was banned for certain age groups in others months ago.
The idea of an obligatory cocktail of vaccines was met with strong opposition in Italy, where several regional governments signalled that they would not follow Rome’s orders and vowed to offer citizens an option for their second dose.
Yesterday, after an increasing number of people refused the vaccine cocktail and with only 24 per cent of the population fully immunised, officials in Rome suggested Italy might follow the “Spanish model.” Under that policy, people can still opt to receive their second AstraZeneca dose regardless of their age after signing a liability waiver in case of adverse effects.
France has also approved mixing the AstraZeneca and mRNA vaccines for people under the age of 55, but it is not mandatory and applies to a smaller proportion of the population than in Italy.
Franco Locatelli, head of the health council, insisted preliminary studies showed mixing vaccines boosted the immune system’s response.
However, preliminary findings of a study published in The Lancet last month showed the vaccine cocktail amplified common side effects and therefore “might have some short-term disadvantages”.
The absence of unambiguous data on the effects of mixing led Italian commentators to harshly criticise the government’s decision and its poor communication on the AstraZeneca jab’s limitations.
Several analysts and politicians also claimed that the media had been sympathetic to Draghi’s government and the Covid-19 commissioner he installed, whereas the former prime minister, Giuseppe Conte, would have been “torn to pieces” had the same situation materialised.
Italy’s decision to set up vaccination “open days” — where people as young as 16 could show up without a booking to be immunised with any vaccine available — also came under fire domestically and abroad.
How would you feel about being inoculated with two doses of different Covid-19 vaccines? Take our poll here.
Chart du jour: Inflation extremes
The European Central Bank’s governing council meets on a hillside in Frankfurt today, with inflation targets one of the big issues on their agenda. Figures released for May showed inflation was on the rise across most of Europe, with Luxembourg recording an increase of 4 per cent. At the opposite end, Greece, hampered by low tourism numbers, is still recording negative inflation.
Norway’s Greens vs Big Oil
A fierce and sometimes surreal controversy has felled Oslo’s entire government, giving a taste of some of the debates that are likely to resurface in national elections in September, writes Richard Milne, FT Nordic and Baltic bureau chief.
The entire centre-left Oslo city council resigned in protest on Wednesday after a vote of no confidence in Green politician Lan Marie Berg, because of her failure to disclose a huge cost overrun in a new water pipeline for Norway’s capital.
Berg is one of the most polarising politicians in Norway, as her outspoken attacks on petrol cars and more have drawn a torrent of criticism, some of it heavily misogynistic and racist.
She is running for Norway’s national parliament in elections on September 13 that the centre-left opposition — of which her Green party is part — are on track to win.
But the controversy surrounding her underscored the difficulties that Norway, western Europe’s biggest petroleum producer, is experiencing in working out how to meet its climate obligations.
The International Energy Agency warned last month that there should be no new oil and gas exploration to reach the Paris agreement goal of limiting global warming to 1.5C more than pre-industrial levels. But Norway’s main centre-left Labour party and ruling centre-right Conservatives have shown no desire to call time on the country’s oil industry.
The Greens have said they would not support any government that continues with oil exploration, but it is far from clear whether the party will gain enough votes to enter parliament. Many Norwegian voters appear put off by their tough rhetoric, with the Centre party — rivalling Labour as the biggest centre-left group — defending diesel cars popular with their mostly rural supporters.
The surreal aspect of the events in Oslo is that the same centre-left government is likely to be reborn without Berg, who wants to focus on her parliamentary run. That led the Centre party to accuse her of self-indulgence for not simply resigning and sparing the capital the spectacle of high political drama in the midst of a pandemic. It also demonstrated the divisions within Norway’s centre-left and the difficulties they could have in forming a coherent national government should they win in September.
What to watch this weekend
Brexit commissioner Maros Sefcovic gives a speech today at the College of Europe on the EU’s post-Brexit relations with the UK
The Conference on the Future of Europe holds its first plenary session tomorrow in Strasbourg
WFH future: Remote working is here to stay, with a majority of European office workers preferring it to the old way of going in to the office. A policy paper by Bruegel suggests the EU should set up a regulatory framework for hybrid working.
Gig workers: Self-employed, in fierce competition for orders, without social protection and subject to algorithmic bias — this is the experience of most delivery service workers in Europe. The Centre for European Policy Studies has published a report about the situation of digital platforms workers in all 27 EU countries over the past five years.
Flying green: FT travel editor Tom Robbins writes about his experience onboard the world’s fully electric two-seat plane, which was recently certified for commercial use in the EU market.
Axe the G7: A week after the G7 summit in Cornwall, economist Jeffrey Sachs argues that the format is outdated and consistently fails to deliver results — and should therefore be consigned to the history books. (PS)
Recommended newsletters for you
The links with Tai that Brussels hopes will bind
This article is an on-site version of our Trade Secrets newsletter. Sign up here to get the newsletter sent straight to your inbox every Monday to Thursday
Hello from Brussels, where the barbed-wire barricades have been cleared away, the buses are back running on their usual routes rather than being diverted around the centre and in general the city has the typical morning-after feeling that follows a visit from the US president. Today’s main piece looks at what Joe Biden’s trip to Brussels actually meant for trade, while Charted waters delves into the nature of the trading relationship between the two jurisdictions.
Warm words now, but a cold reality awaits
And so the US presidential procession leaves behind, certainly in Brussels trade circles, a profound sense of relief that they are dealing with the personable and constructive Joe Biden and Katherine Tai rather than the abrasive and frequently toxic Donald Trump and Robert Lighthizer.
The big victory was the Airbus-Boeing deal after a mere 17 years of World Trade Organization litigation, not just in itself but for what it said about the possibilities of constructive engagement. Tai, the US trade representative, told a media roundtable in Brussels on Tuesday: “This was a test of our relationship and our ability to build confidence and trust.” However, as Trade Secrets wrote yesterday, it’s not a given that an ad hoc make-it-up-as-you-go-along approach will work between two economies and their aircraft manufacturers, which still have serious problems with each other’s subsidy models.
In fact, if you had to sum up the entire encounter, it was that while leaders and officials luxuriate publicly in a rhetorical hot tub of co-operation and mutual appreciation, they still need to pass through a cold shower of political and legal reality on the way to the changing rooms.
Having China as a rival in common is certainly a useful bonding experience and framing device. The Airbus-Boeing deal was portrayed as a joint response to the rise of aircraft manufacturers in non-market economies. Similarly, the US pledge to fix the “Section 232” national security tariffs on EU steel and aluminium that the Biden administration inherited from Trump was put in the context of global overcapacity driven by Chinese (and others’) steel production.
Still, when it comes to a choice between irritating an ally such as the EU (and possibly breaking international law) and disappointing a politically powerful domestic constituency such as the steel industry, which likes the tariffs, the Biden administration has so far chosen the former.
Plans to remove existing transatlantic irritants remain either fragile or aspirational. The Airbus-Boeing subsidies have been suspended but not abolished. Tai said on Tuesday: “We have pivoted to co-operation and collaboration, but it is going to be helpful to have the ability to bring these tariffs back to keep each other honest.” In other words: trust but verify, agree a ceasefire but do not disarm.
On the Section 232s, which are supposed to be fixed by the beginning of December, Tai said: “There are hard questions that we have to face and deep feelings that we’re going to have to address . . . we’re going to push ourselves and our partners in the EU for an outcome that is going to be good for our relationship, for our industries, for our economies, for our workers”. If you believe the zero-sum logic of protectionism, there may be some difficulty in addressing all those goals at once.
There are mysterious nose-tapping “wait and see” noises from both sides about how they might punch enough of a hole in the 232 tariff wall to let some European steel and aluminium into the US without alienating blue-collar workers enough to hand the Midwest to the Republicans. But it’s going to be technically and politically difficult to get that done in less than six months.
As for the WTO itself, certainly the Biden administration pleased the EU and others by moving quickly in its early weeks to unblock the appointment of Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala as director-general. But that wasn’t politically costly: only isolationist headbangers in US politics and business really want to destroy the institution. Asked on Tuesday about the prospects for reviving the WTO’s at-present paralysed appellate body, long disliked by the US steel industry for ruling American antidumping duties illegal, Tai said: “I’m definitely not answering that.”
The goodwill certainly sounds like it’s there. Every utterance on both sides was suffused with the rhetoric of co-operation. Tai even went out of her way to praise the EU for its submission to the WTO on the vaccine IP issue which, unlike the US stance, does not call for a patent waiver.
On that subject, incidentally, while declining to rule out the US itself submitting a negotiating text, she said: “I think that we have a unique ability in the WTO on this issue to be a facilitator, to have credibility with the different sides”. This strengthens our view that the US is far happier to get the good PR from supporting a waiver in principle than to stick its neck out by taking a position in the talks.
Whatever the vibe, the Biden administration is overwhelmingly focused on its domestic economy and maintaining political support, and the EU doesn’t have any votes in the next year’s US midterm elections. We’ll watch the outcomes with interest but without great confidence that everything will get fixed in short order.
We’ve written about the diplomatic relationship, but what about trade between the EU and US itself? As the chart below shows, the two have a tight — and increasingly important — relationship. The EU’s surplus has grown slightly of late, though by a smaller factor than the growth in total values of traded goods.
In terms of industries, here’s a breakdown of the most valued ones for the EU. The importance of machinery and transport equipment goes some way to explaining why Trump’s threat of tariffs on the car industry did so much to rile lawmakers here. Claire Jones
A round-up of stories from the Financial Times this morning. As jurisdictions get tougher on due diligence, lawyers are helping companies clean up their supply chains. We also have an opinion article, which pushes for a global consensus on how to stress test supply chains. This follows calls from the US — wise in our view — to set up a global forum for supply chain resilience. New Zealand wants to agree trade deals with the EU and UK this year in an attempt to become less reliant on China.
Many countries have imposed sanctions on Myanmar following the military coup earlier this year. Not so Moscow. Nikkei ($) reports that Russia’s rolling out of the welcome mat for Myanmar’s air force commander was a cue to the junta that its arms will flow to the south-east Asian nation.
Bloomberg ($) has a piece on European car sales failing to recover to pre-pandemic levels. We think this may have something to do with chip-induced supply shortages. In the meantime, the price of used cars has surged. Alan Beattie and Claire Jones
Biden warns Putin of ‘devastating’ fallout if activist Navalny dies in jail
Joe Biden warned Vladimir Putin that there would be “devastating” consequences for Russia if opposition activist Alexei Navalny were to die in prison after “open” and “frank” talks aimed at stabilising relations between the two countries.
In their first face-to-face meeting as leaders, the presidents agreed to begin bilateral talks on preventing cyber attacks, restart talks on arms control, restore their ambassadors to their respective embassies and explore a potential exchange of citizens held in each other’s prisons, Putin said.
Billed as a meeting riddled with difficult topics and mutual grievances, Putin told reporters following talks that lasted three and a half hours that there was “no hostility” and the conversation was “efficient . . . and constructive”.
“This was a productive meeting,” Putin said. “It was fruitful. It was to the point, and it took place in an atmosphere that was enabling . . . it gave us glimpses of confidence and hope.”
Putin praised Biden’s moral qualities and described his approach as pragmatic and well balanced, but said it was “hard to say” whether relations would improve as a result.
Biden told reporters he had handed Putin a list of “certain critical infrastructure [that] should be off limits” from cyber attacks, which comprised 16 entities including the energy sector and water systems.
“I said: ‘How would you feel if ransomware took down the pipelines that run from your oilfields?’” Biden said.
But he echoed Putin’s comments about the tone of the meeting, which he said was “good, positive . . . There wasn’t any strident action taken.”
He added that he raised the issue of Navalny’s detention with Putin and what would happen if the activist died in prison. “I made it clear to him the consequences of that would be devastating for Russia.”
Navalny was arrested and sentenced to prison recently after returning to Russia. “Human rights is always going to be on the table,” Biden said.
Putin had answered questions about Navalny by saying that he had broken Russian law and knew he would be jailed if he returned to Russia, and claimed that his political activity was seeking to weaken Russia.
The meeting started at about 1.30pm local time with a handshake between the two leaders at the 18th-century Villa La Grange by Lake Geneva, and ended just after 5pm, more than an hour earlier than aides had predicted.
Cyber warfare was one of the biggest irritants before the summit, following a major hack of US government agencies last year by Russia-based groups, and alleged disinformation campaigns in the US by Moscow-backed organisations.
Biden had described Putin as a “worthy adversary” ahead of the meeting and said he was going to clarify to the Russian leader “what the red lines are”. Russia was seeking to drive a wedge in transatlantic solidarity and the US was experiencing an increase in malicious cyber activity, Biden added. He promised to respond in kind if necessary.
“We believe cyber space is extraordinarily important in general and in particular for the US, and to the same extent for Russia,” Putin told reporters.
The agreed bilateral government talks on cyber security will be a first for the US and Russia, and have previously been resisted by Washington.
Biden and Putin also grappled with a long list of accusations, complaints and charges against one another, including alleged Russian meddling in US elections, US sanctions against Moscow and the Kremlin’s misgivings over Nato military expansion in eastern Europe.
Other difficulties in the relationship are torn-up arms control agreements and war in Ukraine.
Biden travelled to the Swiss city after a week in Europe meeting G7, EU and Nato allies. The response to threats posed by Russia was continually raised in talks with western leaders. The EU warned in a foreign policy paper on Wednesday of a “negative spiral” in EU-Russia relations.
The US president said world leaders had thanked him for holding the summit, which some analysts have criticised as handing Putin a diplomatic victory.
Biden said at the outset of the meeting: “As I said outside, it is always better to meet face-to-face to try to determine where we have mutual interest; co-operate, and where we don’t, establish predictable and rational” relations. He added: “Two great powers.”
Putin said that his ambassador would return to Washington, and the US ambassador would return to Moscow following the talks.
The respective diplomats left their posts earlier in the year after a chain of events prompted by Biden agreeing with an interviewer that Putin was a “killer”.
Ronaldo’s Coke moment signals shifting balance of power in sport
Bond spreads collapse as investors rush into corporate debt
Spain’s Acciona eyes €9.8bn valuation for renewable energy IPO
Italy’s government in crisis as Renzi ministers resign
Macron’s war on ‘Islamic separatism’ only divides France further
US allows sales of chips to Huawei’s non-5G businesses
Europe5 months ago
Italy’s government in crisis as Renzi ministers resign
Europe8 months ago
Macron’s war on ‘Islamic separatism’ only divides France further
Emerging Markets8 months ago
US allows sales of chips to Huawei’s non-5G businesses
Europe6 months ago
European truckmakers to phase out diesel sales decade earlier than planned
Emerging Markets9 months ago
Mexico’s Supreme Court approves referendum on presidential trials
Company8 months ago
Most investors now expect the U.S. stock market to crash like it did in October 1987 — why that’s good news
Markets8 months ago
Two top Morgan Stanley commodities traders lose jobs over use of WhatsApp
Emerging Markets8 months ago
Arrest of Mexican general in US shakes López Obrador at home and abroad